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《巴克莱-美股-生命科学工具与诊断-pama会议开始：富有意义的削减正加速整合-2017.9.25-barclays-u.s. life science tools & diagnostics the pama party begins - meaningful cuts should catalyze consolidation》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearch25September2017U.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsINDUSTRYUPDATEThePAMAPartyBegins–MeaningfulU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsCutsShouldCatalyzeConsolidationNEUTRALUnchangedOnFriday9/22/17,aftertheclose,CMSreleasedthepreliminary2018MedicareClinicalLabF
2、eeSchedule,kickingoffthelargestchangetodiagnosticsForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseereimbursementinover30years.Theresultsconfirmourbeliefthatthetableonpage2.implementationofPAMAwillleadtomeaningfulMedicarecutsovertime,an
3、dleadtoaperiodofheightenedlabindustryconsolidation.Ofcourse,thereisnothingweenjoymoreovertheweekendthandiggingthroughamountainofCMSdata.WenowU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsbelievethedirectPAMAimpactimpliesan8%Medicareratereductionin2018forJackMeehan,CFALabCorpa
4、ndQuest,andalmost10%through2020.Thisishigherthanourprior+12125263909forecastof5%peryear.Frankly,we’resurprisedatthesheernumberofcodesthatwilljack.meehan@barclays.comseeafull10%ratereductionforeachofthefirst3years(85ofthetop100codes),withBCI,USmanyroutinecodessee
5、inga>35%reductioninaggregate.For2018,keepinmindoneMitchellPetersenoffsetisthatthetransitionfrom57localfeeschedulesto1nationalfeeschedule+12125263367provides200-250bpsofprotectionforLabCorpandQuest.Thefinancialimpactisstillmitchell.petersen@barclays.commeaningful
6、yetmanageable,giventhattheMedicareCLFSrepresents"only"8%ofBCI,USLabCorp'srevenueand12%ofQuest'srevenue.Assuminga100%drop-throughonapricingreduction,thisequatestoa2018EPSheadwindof4%and6%,respectively.IfAndrewWaldMedicarereimbursementchangesareactuallythissizable
7、,oursurveyworkand+12125269436interactionswithlabdirectorssuggesttheindustrywillexperienceaperiodofandrew.wald@barclays.commeaningfulconsolidation.Ultimately,webelievesmallerlabswithoutsizedMedicareBCI,USexposurewillbeconsolidatedovertime(eitherorganicallyorinorg
8、anically),benefitingLabCorpandQuestastheindustryleaders.Observations:1)CMShasquotedaheadline22%MedicarecuttotheCLFSovertime,similartoourforecastrangeof20-30%.2)Thelab
