j.p. 摩根-欧洲-国防与航空业-欧洲航空业股票策略：民用航空业上升，国防工业下降

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1、Completed28Nov201706:11PMGMTDisseminated28Nov201707:18PMGMTEuropeEquityResearch28November2017PlaneSpeaking-November2017CivilAerosurges,Defencedives2017YTDhasbeenagreatyearforEuropeanCivilAero(ECA)stocks,upEuropeanAerospace&Defence28%onaverage(vs.MSCIEu

2、rope+6%).TheEuropeanDefenceSectorACDavidHPerry,CFA(EDS)startedtheyearwell(up9%byendMay),butsince1June,thesector(44-20)7742-5606haspulledbackbyc20%.Webegan2017withapositiveviewonbothECAdavid.h.perry@jpmorgan.comandEDS,butasoftoday,wehavefiveOWratingsinE

3、CAstocksandnoOWBloombergJPMAPERRYratingsinEDS(Table1).MaliniChauhan(44-20)71348456ECA-evenbetterthanweexpectedin2017:Inour2017Outlookreport(4malini.chauhan@jpmorgan.comJan),wetookapositivestanceonECA,arguingthat:(1)wewereJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcapp

4、roachingtheendofthe“greatproducttransition”thathaschallengedsoForSpecialistSalesadvicepleasemanycompaniessince2014;(2)animprovingeconomicbackdropwasgoodcontact:fordemand;and(3)astronger$washelpful.ThefirsttwoargumentsprovedTimmSchulze-Melander,CFAcorre

5、ct,actuallyoutweighingthenegativedirectionofthe$overtheyear.(4420)7134-1331Recentdevelopmentsareencouraging,too:(1)intheQ3resultsseason,mosttimm.schulze-melander@jpmorgan.comECAcompaniesbeatconsensusexpectationsandMTUincreasedFY17AntoniaCMillardguidanc

6、e;(2)aftermarkettrendswereveryrobustinQ3;and(3)theDubai(44-20)7134-2652AirShowthismonthbroughtinmorenewordersandLOIsthanweexpected.antonia.c.millard@jpmorgan.comECA-weremainpositiveinto2018:(1)Oureconomistsforecast2018EglobalGDPgrowthof3.2%,thesameas2

7、017E(2016A:2.6%).(2)StrongairlinesharepricesinEuropeandAsiasuggestthatairlinesinthosemarketsTable1:PricetargetsandratingsRat-CurrTargetUp-aresetforprofitablegrowth.(3)Mostimportantly,weexpectEuropeancivilingPricepricesideaerocompaniestodelivermid-singl

8、e-digitorganicgrowth,strongEPSCivilAerogrowth(onlike-for-likeaccounting),andmuchimprovedFCF.LargeCapAirbusOW86.89914%EDS-abearmarket:AsshowninTable5,EDShasseenanaverageshareR-RoyceN8709509%pricecorrectionof20%since1June,vs-2%fortheFTSE