chance discoveries in real world decision making [studies in computational intelligence] (springer 2006)外语英文电子书

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1、ChanceDiscovery:TheCurrentStatesofArtYukioOhsawaSchoolofEngineering,TheUniversityofTokyoohsawa@q.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp1Introduction:ScenariosandChancesintheBasisofDecisionsAsdefinedin[18],achanceinchancediscoverymeanstounderstandanunno-ticedevent/situationwhichcanbe(uncertain,but)significantformak

2、ingadecision.Associatingtheeventwiththeappearanceofaproductoraservice,customersseekavaluableevent,i.e.,theappearanceofaproduct/servicesignificantforhis/herdecisiontoimprovedailylife.Associatingtheeventwithamessagefromacustomer,peopleinthesideofbusinessshouldlookatavaluableevent,i.e.,amessag

3、esignificantforthedecisiontoimprovetheservice.Chancediscoveryisanessentialbasicresearchareaapplicabletoallkindsofbusiness.Theabovedefinitionofachancemayhavesoundedcounter-intuitiveforreaderthinkingaboutanaccidentoruncertainty,sayeventsoc-curringbychance.Tosuchanopinion,wehavebeenassertingcha

4、ncediscoverymeansthediscoveryofchance,notbychance.However,accordingtothere-centprogressofstudiesonthemethodsofchancediscovery,therelevancebetweendiscoveryofchanceanddiscoverybychancecametobemoreposi-tivelyrecognized.Thatis,achancedefinedasaneventsignificantfordecisionmakinghasallthenaturesof

5、achanceinthephrase“bychance,”i.e.(1)un-certainty,(2)accident(3)probability,ifweintroducescenario-basedthoughtsaboutchancediscovery,andthesecanallbeputintoapowerofsurvival.Notehere,thatadecisionmeanstochooseonefrommultiplepossiblescenariosoffutureeventsandactions,sothereis“uncertainty”in(1)

6、,inthefuturescenarioswherechancediscoveryisdesired.Inotherwords,uncer-taintycanbethemotivationtodecidesomething.Therefore,“probability”in(3)ratherthanTrue/Falsemaybecomeanappropriatemeasureofthejusti-ficationofascenario.An“accident”of(2)impliesuncertaintytoleadtoanopportunityortoarisk,relyi

7、ngonthefuturescenario.Ingeneral,ascenarioisatimeseriesofevents/statestooccurunderacer-taincontext.And,achancecanberegardedasthecrossofmultiplescenarios.Y.Ohsawa:ChanceDiscovery:TheCurrentStatesofArt,StudiesinComputationalIntelligence(SCI)30,3–20(2006)www.sprin