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1、Chapter12RiskandtheintelligentOptiOninvestORThepreceding11chaptershavegivenyouagreatdealofinformationaboutthemechanicsofoptioninvestingandstockvaluation.Inthislastchapter,let’slookatasubjectthatIhavementionedthroughoutthisbook—risk—andseehowanintelligentoptioninvestorconceiveso
2、fit.Therearemanyformsofrisk—someofwhichwediscussedearlier(e.g.,thecareerriskofaninvestmentbusinessagent,solvencyriskofaretireelookingtomaintainagoodqualityoflife,andliquidityriskofaparentneedingtomakeabigpaymentforachild’swedding).ThetworisksIdiscussherearethosethataremostappli
3、cabletoanownerofcapitalmakingpotentiallyleveredinvestmentsincomplex,uncertainassetssuchasstocks.Thesetworisksaremarketriskandvaluationrisk.MarketRiskMarketriskisunavoidableforanyoneinvestingcapital.Marketsfluctuate,andintheshortterm,thesefluctuationsoftenhavelittletodowiththelo
4、ng-termvalueofagivenstock.Shortterm,itmustbenoted,isalsorelative.InwordsattributedtoJohnMaynardKeynes,butwhichismorelikelyananonymousaphorism,“Themarketcanremainirrationallongerthanyoucanremainsol-vent.”Indeed,itisthisobservationandmyownpainfulexperienceofthetruthofitthathasbro
5、ughtmetomyappreciationforin-the-money(ITM)optionsasawaytopreservemycapitalandcushiontheblowoftiminguncertainty.263264 • TheIntelligentOptionInvestorMarketriskisafactorthatinvestorsinleveredinstrumentsmustalwayskeepinmind.EvenanITMcalllong-termequityanticipatedsecurity(LEAPS)int
6、hesummerof2007mighthavebecomeashort-tenorout-of-the-money(OTM)callbythefallof2008aftertheLehmanshockbecauseofthesharpdeclineinstockpricesintheinterim.Unexpectedthingscananddohappen.Aportfolioconstructedoblivioustothisfactisadangerousthing.Aslongasmarketfluctuationsonlycauseunre
7、alizedlosses,marketriskismanageable.Butifaleveredlossmustberealized,eitherbecauseofanoptionexpirationorinordertofundanotherposition,ithasthepoten-tialtomateriallyreduceyouravailableinvestmentcapital.Youcannotma-teriallyreduceyourinvestmentcapitaltoomanytimesbeforerunningout.ALe
8、hmanshockisaworst-casescenario,andsomeinvestorslivethe
