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1、INTEMATIONALECONOMICSELSVIERJournalofInternationalEconomics43(1997)103-132Spillovers,foreigninvestment,andexportbehaviorBrianAitken,GordonH.Hansonbd.*,AnnE.HarrisonCSdInternationalMonetaryFund,70019thStreet,NW,Washington,DC,USAhDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofTexas,Austin,TX78712.USAColumbiaB
2、usinessSchool,615UrisHall,NewYork,NY10027,USANBER,Cambridge,MA,USAAbstractCasestudiesofexportbehaviorsuggestthatfirmsthatpenetrateforeignmarketsreduceentrycostsforotherpotentialexporters,eitherthroughlearningeffectsorestablishingcommerciallinkages.Weexaminewhetherspilloversassociatedwithonefirm
3、sexportactivityreducethecostofexportingforotherfirms.Weidentifytwosourcesofspillovers:exportproductioningeneralandthespecificactivitiesofmultinationals.Fromasimplemodelofexportbehaviorwederiveaprobitspecificationfortheprobabilitythatafirmexports.UsingpaneldataonMexicanmanufacturingplants,wefind
4、evidenceofspilloversfrommultinationalenterprisesbutnotfromgeneralexportactivity.Keywords:Multinationalenterprises;Geographicconcentrationofindustry;Exportpro-ductionJELclass$cation:F14;F231.IntroductionWhatexplainstheexportbehavioroffirms?Tradetheoryhaslittletosayaboutwhichfirmsinacountryexport
5、andwhichproduceforthedomesticmarket,andtherehasbeenlittleformalempiricalworkonthesubject.Anecdotalevidence,mostlyderivedfromcasestudiesindevelopingcountries,suggeststhattheprocess*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:517-475-8522;email:hanson@eco.u+utexas.eduTwoexceptionsareRobertsandTybout(1993)andBernard
6、andJensen(1995).bothofwhichexaminetheeffectofsunkcostsontheexport-supplydecision.0022-1996/97/$17.0001997ElsevierScienceB.V.AllrightsreservedPIISOO22-1996(96)01464-X104B.Aitkenetal.IJournalofInternationalEconomics43(1997)103-132ofbreakingintoforeignmarketsisfarfromtrivial(Morawetz,1981;Kessing,
7、1983).Oneofthemostspectacularcasestudiesofexportgrowth,thedevelopmentofgarmentexportersinBangladesh,suggeststhatinformationalexternalitiesarelikelytobeveryimportant.TheentryofoneKoreangarmentexporterinBangladeshleadtotheestablishm