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1、confirmingpagesPART2CHAPTER"""""7RISKIntroductiontoRiskandReturn!Wehavemanagedtogothroughsixchaptersonratesofreturnincapitalmarkets.Thenwetakeawithoutdirectlyaddressingtheproblemofrisk,butfirstlookatinvestmentrisksandshowhowtheycannowthejigisup.Wecannolongerbesat
2、isfiedwithbereducedbyportfoliodiversification.Weintroducevaguestatementslike“Theopportunitycostofcapitalyoutobeta,thestandardriskmeasureforindividualdependsontheriskoftheproject.”Weneedtoknowsecurities.howriskisdefined,whatthelinksarebetweenriskandThethemesofthis
3、chapter,then,areportfoliorisk,theopportunitycostofcapital,andhowthefinancialsecurityrisk,anddiversification.Forthemostpart,wemanagercancopewithriskinpracticalsituations.taketheviewoftheindividualinvestor.ButattheendInthischapterweconcentrateonthefirstoftheseofthe
4、chapterweturntheproblemaroundandaskissuesandleavetheothertwotoChapters8and9.Wewhetherdiversificationmakessenseasacorporatestartbysummarizingmorethan100yearsofevidenceobjective."""""7-1OveraCenturyofCapitalMarketHistoryinOneEasyLessonFinancialanalystsareblessedwit
5、hanenormousquantityofdata.TherearecomprehensivedatabasesofthepricesofU.S.stocks,bonds,options,andcommodities,aswellashugeamountsofdataforsecuritiesinothercountries.WefocusonastudybyDimson,Marsh,andStauntonthatmeasuresthehistoricalperformanceofthreeportfoliosofU.S
6、.securities:11.AportfolioofTreasurybills,thatis,U.S.governmentdebtsecuritiesmaturinginlessthanoneyear.22.AportfolioofU.S.governmentbonds.3.AportfolioofU.S.commonstocks.Theseinvestmentsofferdifferentdegreesofrisk.Treasurybillsareaboutassafeaninvestmentasyoucanmake
7、.Thereisnoriskofdefault,andtheirshortmaturitymeansthatthepricesofTreasurybillsarerelativelystable.Infact,aninvestorwhowishestolendmoneyfor,say,threemonthscanachieveaperfectlycertainpayoffbypurchasingaTreasurybillmaturinginthreemonths.However,theinvestorcannotlock
8、inarealrateofreturn:Thereisstillsomeuncertaintyaboutinflation.1SeeE.Dimson,P.R.Marsh,andM.Staunton,TriumphoftheOptimists:101YearsofInvestmentReturns(Princeton,
