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1、19878_14_c14_p479-505.qxd2/22/0610:36AMPage479CHAPTER14RealOptionsTraditionaldiscountedcashflow(DCF)analysis—whereanasset’scashflowsareestimatedandthendiscountedtoobtaintheasset’sNPV—hasbeenthecornerstoneforvaluingalltypesofassetssincethe1950s.Accordingly,mostofourdiscussionofcapi
2、talbudgetinghasfocusedonDCFvaluationtechniques.However,inrecentyearsTheThomsonNOWWebsitecontainsanagrowingnumberofacademicsandpractitionershavedemon-ExcelfilethatwillguideyouthroughthestratedthatDCFvaluationtechniquesdonotalwaystellthecom-chapter’scalculations.Thefileforthispletes
3、toryaboutaproject’svalue,andthatroteuseofDCFcan,atchapterisIFM9Ch14ToolKit.xls,andwetimes,leadtoincorrectcapitalbudgetingdecisions.1encourageyoutoopenthefileandfol-DCFtechniqueswereoriginallydevelopedtovaluesecuritieslowalongasyoureadthechapter.suchasstocksandbonds.Thesesecurities
4、arepassiveinvest-ments—oncetheyhavebeenpurchased,mostinvestorshavenoinfluenceoverthecashflowstheassetsproduce.However,realassetsarenotpassiveinvestments—managerialactionscaninflu-encetheirresults.Furthermore,investinginanewprojectoftenbringswithitthepotentialforincreasingthefirm’s
5、futureoppor-tunities.Opportunitiesare,ineffect,options—therightbutnottheobligationtotakesomeactioninthefuture.Aswedemon-strateinthenextsection,optionsarevaluable,soanyprojectthatexpandsthefirm’ssetofopportunitieshaspositiveoptionvalue.Similarly,anyprojectthatreducesthesetoffutureo
6、pportunitiesTODISCCOLLECTIONdestroysoptionvalue.Aproject’simpactonthefirm’sopportuni-ties,oritsoptionvalue,maynotbecapturedbyconventionalNPVanalysis,sothisoptionvalueshouldbeconsideredseparately.1Foranexcellentgeneraldiscussionoftheproblemsinherentindiscountedcashflowvaluationtech
7、-niquesasappliedtocapitalbudgeting,seeAvinashK.DixitandRobertS.Pindyck,“TheOptionsApproachtoCapitalInvestment,”HarvardBusinessReview,May–June1995,pp.105–115.IMAGE:©GETTYIMAGES,INC.,PHO47919878_14_c14_p479-505.qxd2/22/0610:36AMPage480BEGINNING-OF-CHAPTERQUESTIONSAsyoureadthechapter
8、,considerhowyouapproaches?Isonepr
