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1、±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±IMPLICATIONSOF±±±±±±CHAPTER±±±±9±±±±OVERCONFIDENCE±FORFINANCIALDECISION-MAKING9.1INTRODUCTIONAswesawinChapter5,overconfidenceispandemicinsociety.Inthischapter,weaddresstheextenttowhichthisbehavioraltendencyimpactsfinancialdecision-making.Asinthepreviouschapter,ourfocuswillbe
2、oninvestorsandothermar-ketpractitioners.Later,inChapter16,wewillconsiderhowentrepreneursandcorporatemanagersmightbeaffected.InChapter13,overconfidencewillbeseentoplayacentralroleinmodelsthatseektoexplainvariousmarketanomalies.InSection9.2,thevariousmanifestationsofoverconfidenceandexcessivetra
3、d-ingarerelated.Webeginwithasimplemodelillustratingtherelationshipbetweenoverconfidenceandtrading,andthenmovetoevidencefromnaturallyoccurringmarkets,surveys,andexperiments.WeturntothedemographicsanddynamicsofoverconfidenceinafinancialsettinginSection9.3.Somegroups(e.g.,men)tendtodisplaygreater
4、overconfidence.Moreover,weinvestigatewhetheroverconfi-dencecanbe“learned”bypastexperienceinmarkets.InSection9.4,evidencethatrelatesoverconfidencetounderdiversificationandexcessiverisktakingisex-plored.Finally,inSection9.5,webrieflypresentevidencethatanalystsexhibitex-cessiveoptimism.Thisislike
5、lyduetomorethanpsychology,aswillbediscussedinChapter12whenwerevisitthefinancialbehaviorofthisgroupofpractitioners.9.2OVERCONFIDENCEANDEXCESSIVETRADINGThereisevidencethattheoverconfidenceofinvestorsleadstoexcessivetrading.Theoreticalmodelshavebeenconstructedthatyieldthisresult.Toillustratethein
6、-sightsprovidedbythesemodels,webeginwithasimpleillustrativemodelthatre-latesoverconfidenceandtradingactivity.151152CHAPTER9OVERCONFIDENTTRADERS:ASIMPLEMODELConsiderthedemandforaparticularsecurity.Attheleveloftheindividual,de-mandwillbeafunctionoftheinvestor’sestimateofthesecurity’s(intrinsic)v
7、alue.Iftheinvestorbelievesthatthevalueexceedsthemarketprice,hewillwishtoholdmoreofthesecuritythanifthesecuritywasperceivedtobefairlypriced.Letqnequalthe(neutral)numberofsharesthataninvestorwouldholdifpriceandvalue1wereequivalent.Iftheva
