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1、2014-CAS8§27Grossi&Kunreuther,CatastropheModeling,HCM5/13/14,Page1960Section27,Grossi&Kunreuther,CatastropheModeling17781779Lowfrequencyhighseverityeventssuchascatastrophes,havetobetreatedspeciallyinratemaking.Onewouldremoveanycatastrophesfromtherecentdatausedforratem
2、aking,andthenloadbackinanaverageprovisionforcatastrophes.Sometimes,theactuarywillrelyonactualinsuredexperiencetoestimateaprovisionforcatastrophes.Forexample,forhailstormsonemightusedecadesofdatafortheentireinsuranceindustry.Inthe1980s,computermodelsoftheinsurancelosse
3、sduetohurricanesstartedtobedeveloped.Sincethencomputermodelsofinsurancelossesduetocatastropheshavebeendevelopedandrefined.Theyarenowwidelyusedforhurricanesandearthquakes.1780Computersimulationofeventscanestimateexpectedannuallosses,aswellasthedistributionofannuallosse
4、s.Thisreadingdiscussesvariousaspectsandusesofcatastrophemodeling.Itwaswrittenforinsuranceprofessionalsratherthanspecificallyforactuaries.1781“Theoutputfromcatastrophemodelsprovidesimportantinformationforinsurerstomanagetheirrisk.Bymodelingtherisk,insurerscanmoreaccura
5、telyestimatethepremiumstochargeforinsurancecoveragefornaturaldisasters.Inaddition,insurersandreinsurersareabletotailortheircoveragetoreducethechanceofinsolvency.Theycandevelopnewstrategiesfromanagingtheirportfoliossoastoavoidlossesthatmightotherwisecauseanunacceptable
6、reductioninsurplus.”1782Theoutputofacatastrophemodelcanbeusedfor:ratemakingbyaninsurerorreinsurer,determiningriskloads,underwriting,determinationoftheProbableMaximumLoss,helpingtodetermineinsuranceterritoriesandclasses,designingareinsuranceprogram,determiningwhetheran
7、insurerhasadequatesurplusfortheinsurancebeingwritten,determiningthenumberofpeoplewhowillbekilled,injured,anddisplacedbyadisasterinorderforgovernmentstobebetterpreparedtorespond,helpingtodesignandrevisebuildingcodes,etc.1778CatastropheModeling:ANewApproachtoManagingRis
8、k,EditedbyPatriciaGrossiandHowardKunreuther,2005,Springer,Chapters2-6(excludingreferencesattheendofeachchapter),plusErratafo
