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1、13.KEYNES’SBEAUTYCONTESTForalmostfourdecades,Harry’satHanoverSquarehasbeenapopularWallStreetginmill.Openedin1972byHarryPoulakakos,aGreekimmigrantwhopreviouslyhadbeenaheadwaiteratthenearbyDelmonico’s,itclosedforatimesomeyearsagobutisnowoperatingagain,underHarry’sson,Peter.OntheeveningofMonday,O
2、ctober19,1987,IrusheddowntownfrommyapartmentintheVillage,expectingtofindsomeWallStreettypescryingintotheirglasses:thatday,theDowhadplummeted508points,from2,246.73to1,738.74,itsbiggestpercentagefallinhistory—22.6percent.ThesellinghadbeensointensethattheNewYorkStockExchange’stradingsystemshadbuc
3、kled.Manybrokershadstoppedansweringtheirphones,andexecutedordershadbeenreporteduptoanhourlate,leavinginvestorsunabletotellwherestocksweretrading.Tomysurprise,Harry’swaspacked,andtherewasacarnivalatmosphere.Tradersandbrokerswerebusyregalingjournalistswithdetailsofthecrash;white-shirtedwaiterswe
4、referryingtraysofchampagneandwhiskey;glamorouswomenofuncertainoriginwereonhand.AsayoungreporterwhohadbeencoveringWallStreetforonlyacoupleofmonths,Isoughtoutoneoftheolder-lookingrevelersandaskedhimwhattheheckwasgoingon.Mostofthesepeopleworkedoncommission,themanexplained,andwithallthepanicsellin
5、g—tradingvolumeonwhatcametobeknownas“BlackMonday”reachedalevelneverbeforeseen—theyhadenjoyedoneofthemostrewardingdaysoftheircareers.ThateveningtaughtmeacoupleoflessonsaboutWallStreetIhaven’tforgotten:thingsaren’talwayswhattheyseem;andtheinterestsoffinancialinsidersoftendifferfromthoseofregular
6、investors.Inretrospect,thesizeofthefallinthemarketwasn’tverysurprising,onlyitsrapidity.TheDowhadmorethandoubledinthreeyears,priceshadshotwellaheadofearnings,andanumberofcommentators,suchasElaineGarzarelli,ofShearsonLehman,andRobertPrechter,ofTheElliottWaveTheoristnewsletter,hadissuedsellwarnin
7、gs.Totheeconomicsprofession,though,thecrashcameasathunderbolt.Accordingtotheefficientmarkethypothesis,whichwasthenatthezenithofitspopularity,bigmarketmoveshappenonlyinresponsetonewsthathasmajorimplicationsforcorporateearnings.Therewasno
