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1、4IntroductiontoRiskManagementBusiness,likelife,isinherentlyrisky.Firmsconvertinputssuchaslabor,rawmaterials,andmachinesintogoodsandservices.Afirmisprofitableifthecostofwhatitproducesexceedsthecostoftheinputs.Pricescanchange,however,andwhatappearstobeaprofitableactivitytodaymaynotbeprofitableto
2、morrow.Manyinstrumentsareavailablethatpermitfirmstohedgevariousrisks,rangingfromcommoditypricestoweather.Afirmthatactivelyusesderivativesandothertechniquestoalteritsriskandprotectitsprofitabilityisengaginginriskmanagement.Inthischapterwetakealookathowderivatives—suchasforwards,calls,andputs—a
3、reusedinpracticetomanagerisk.Webeginbyexaminingtwohypotheticalfirms—Golddiggers,agold-miningfirm,andAuricEnterprises,amanufacturerusinggoldasaninput—toseewhatriskstheyfaceandtodemonstratetheuseofderivativesstrategiestomanagethoserisks.Afterlookingattheseexamples,wewillexploresomereasonsfirmss
4、eektomanageriskinthefirstplace.4.1BASICRISKMANAGEMENT:THEPRODUCER’SPERSPECTIVEGolddiggersisagold-miningfirmplanningtomineandsell100,000ouncesofgoldoverthenextyear.Forsimplicity,wewillassumethattheysellallofthenextyear’sproductionprecisely1yearfromtoday,receivingwhateverthegoldpriceisthatday.
5、Thepriceofgoldtodayis$405/oz.Wewillignoreproductionbeyondthenextyear.ObviouslyGolddiggers—likeanyproducer—hopesthatthegoldpricewillriseoverthenextyear.However,Golddiggers’smanagementcomputesestimatednetincomeforarangeofpossiblepricesofgoldin1year(Table4.1).ThenetincomecalculationshowsthatG
6、olddiggers’sprofitisaffectedbygoldprices.ShouldGolddiggerssimplyshutthemineifgoldpricesfallenoughtomakenetincomenegative?Theanswerdependsontheextenttowhichcostsarefixed.Thefirmincursthefixedcostwhetherornotitproducesgold.Variablecostsareincurredonlyifthemineoperates.Thus,foranygoldpriceaboveth
7、evariablecostof$50/oz,itwillmakesensetoproducegold.11.Supposethatthegoldpriceis$350/oz.IfGolddiggersproducesnogold,thefirmlosesitsfixedcost,whichweassumetobe$33,000,000.Withproductionof100,000ounces,thisisanaveragecostof$330/oz.8990Chapter4.IntroductiontoRiskMan
