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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc15JWBT347/MckinseyJune4,201016:23PrinterName:Hamilton15MarketValueTracksReturnonInvestedCapitalandGrowthOverthepast15years,investinginthestockmarkethasbeenaroller-coasterride.Inthesecondhalfofthe1990s,theStandard&Poors(S&P)500indexmore
2、thantripledinvaluetoanall-timehighofalmost1,500.Previousun-knowns,suchasAmazonandAmericaOnline(AOL),becamestockmarketsuperstarsalongwithagalaxyofotherneweconomyanddot-comentrants.Thenthemarketcrashed,andmanylesserstarsflickeredout.After2003,stocksrecove
3、redatastunningpace,andby2007,theS&P500hadregaineditsall-timehigh.However,themarketcrashedagainin2008asaresultofthecreditcrisis,losingaround50percentofitsvalueinthecourseofafewmonths.Peoplearequestioningwhetherlong-heldvaluationtheoriescanexplainsuchdra
4、maticswingsinshareprices.Someevenassertthatstockmarketsleadlivesoftheirown,detachedfromtherealitiesofeconomicgrowthandbusinessprofitability.Buthavemarketvaluesandthediscountedcashflow(DCF)valuationsdescribedinChapter6reallyseparated?Doesitmakesensetoview
5、thestockmarketasanarenawhereemotionsrulesupreme?Wethinknot.Certainly,pricesforsomestocksinsomesectorscanbedrivenintheshorttermbyirrationalbehavior,aswediscussinChapter17.Forshorterperiodsoftime,themarketasawholecanlosetouchwithfunda-mentallawsgroundedi
6、neconomicgrowthandreturnsoninvestment.Andclearlynotallmarketplayersfollowinvestmentstrategiesbasedonthoserules,asweexploreinChapter18.Butinthelongterm,marketdatashowthatin-dividualstocksandthemarketasawholedofollowthesefundamentallaws.Indeed,theextentt
7、owhichcompanyvaluationsbasedonthefundamental337P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc15JWBT347/MckinseyJune4,201016:23PrinterName:Hamilton338MARKETVALUETRACKSRETURNONINVESTEDCAPITALANDGROWTHapproachhavematchedstockmarketvaluesoverthepastfourdecadesisremarkable.Thischapterp
8、resentstheresearchfindingsonwhichwebaseourconclu-sionthat,asintherealeconomy,returnoncapitalandgrowtharethemaindriversofcompanyvaluesinthecapitalmarkets:Valuationlevelsforthestockmarketasawholeclearlyreflecttheun-derlyingfundamentalperfo
