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1、May5,20131Q13earnings:Recovering,butweaklyPortfolioStrategyResearchEarningscontinuetorecover,buttrendingbelowFY13consensusBenBei62MSCIChinacompaniesreported1Q13results(66%ofindexmarket+852-2978-1220ben.bei@gs.comcap).Overallresultswerebetterthan4Q12butsofterthanFY13consensus.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.
2、L.C.A-shares’(100%reported)patternissimilar.ForbothoffshoreandA-shares,financialsandutilitiesaretrackingwelltofull-yearexpectations,ChenjieLiubutearningsforecastsforcyclicalsmaybeatrisk.Bothindices’resultsare+86(10)6627-3324chenjie.liu@ghsl.cntrendinginlinewithGSFY13topdownearningsforecasts.Beij
3、ingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedRecoveryexpectedtocontinue,butataslowerpaceHelenZhuWestillexpectindexearningsgrowthratestoimproveinthecoming+852-2978-0048helen.zhu@gs.comquartersmainlydueto1)stillfavorableGDPdeltavs.2012,2)alowerbaseGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.lastyear,and3)somebenefitsfromreformss
4、uchastheVAT/BTreform.Nevertheless,webelievethemagnitudeofearningsrecoveryshouldbeTimothyMoe,CFAweakerthanconsensusexpectationsandconsensusEPSmayseesome+852-2978-1328timothy.moe@gs.comdownsiderisksbecauseof1)lowergrowthexpectationafterthe1Q13GDPGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.print,2)limitedfurtherupside
5、frombanksandutilities’earnings,and3)slightweakeninginthelatesthigh-frequencydata.Ourtop-down2013JasonSunforecastsareunchangedat11%/10%earningsgrowthforMXCN/CSI300,+86(10)6627-3187jason.sun@ghsl.cnnoticeablylowerthan14%/16%consensus.BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedPulsecheckonearningsquality
6、weakenedin1Q13WestillseeweakearningsqualityafteranalyzingallA-sharecompanies’1Q13results.4Q12datahadshownimprovementsinFCFandworkingcapitalmetricsbeyondtheusualseasonalityeffects.However,in1Q13,FCFturnednegativeagainandworkingcapitalworsenedinalmostallsectors.ROEsawmildcontractionandleveragewass
7、tablebuthasrisensubstantiallyfortheprivatesector.Nevertheless,weseesomequalityimprovementsfrom1)slightexpansioninSOEs’profitmargin,and2)continuedstrengthinFCFfortheprivatesector.1Qresultsimprovedvs.4Q,butfellbehindconsensus’
