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1、CHAPTER8RiskAnalysis,RealOptions,andCapitalBudgetingIn1836,defendersoftheAlamoinSanAntonio,Texas,oftenhelpthefinaltally.Ofcoursetherearemoviesthatheldoutfor13daysagainstgreatodds,andRememberdoquitewell.In2005,thelastoftheStarWarsmovies,theAlamo!becameapartofU.S.
2、history.Incontrast,RevengeoftheSith,pulledinabout$849millionataDisneys2004movieTheAlamo,starringBillyBobcostof$115million.ThorntonasDavyCrockett,barelylastedaweekendatObviously,Disneydidntplantolose$80orsomilliontheboxoffice,andthelastthingDisneysmanagementonThe
3、Alamo,butithappened.Astheshortlifeandwantstodoisrememberthatparticularbomb.DisneyquickdeathofTheAlamoshow,projectsdontalwaysspentcloseto$100millionmakingthemovie,plusgoascompaniesthinktheywill.Thischapterexploresmillionsmoreformarketinganddistribution,butthefilm
4、howthiscanhappen,andwhatcompaniescandotopulledinonlyabout$22.5million.Infact,about4of10analyzeandpossiblyavoidthesesituations.movieslosemoneyattheboxoffice,thoughDVDsales8.1SensitivityAnalysis,ScenarioAnalysis,andBreak-EvenAnalysisOnemainpointofthisbookisthatNPV
5、analysisisasuperiorcapitalbudgetingtechnique.Infact,becausetheNPVapproachusescashflowsratherthanprofits,usesallthecashflows,anddiscountsthecashflowsproperly,itishardtofindanytheoreticalfaultwithit.However,inourconversationswithpracticalbusinesspeople,wehearthephrase
6、“afalsesenseofsecurity”frequently.Thesepeoplepointoutthatthedocumentationforcapitalbudgetingproposalsisoftenquiteimpressive.Cashflowsareprojecteddowntothelastthousanddollars(oreventhelastdollar)foreachyear(oreveneachmonth).Opportunitycostsandsideeffectsarehandle
7、dquiteproperly.Sunkcostsareignored—alsoquiteprop-erly.Whenahighnetpresentvalueappearsatthebottom,one’stemptationistosayyesimmediately.Nevertheless,theprojectedcashflowoftengoesunmetinpractice,andthefirmendsupwithamoneyloser.SensitivityAnalysisandScenarioAnalysisH
8、owcanthefirmgetthenetpresentvaluetechniquetoliveuptoitspotential?Oneapproachissensitivityanalysis,whichexamineshowsensitiveaparticularNPVcalculationistochangesinunderlyingass
