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1、±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±PROSPECTTHEORY,±±±±±±CHAPTER±±±±3±±±±FRAMING,ANDMENTAL±ACCOUNTING3.1INTRODUCTIONThefirsttwochaptersofthisbookpresentedthetraditionalapproachestounder-standingindividualbehavior,financialdecision-making,andmarketoutcomes.Thischapterwillconsidermorerecentattempt
2、stodescribebehaviorthatincorpo-rateobservedaspectsofhumanpsychology.Throughouttheremainderofthebookwewillreturntotheserelativelynewtheorieswhiledescribingempiricalchallengestothetraditionalapproaches.Thischapteriscentraltothestoryofbehavioralfi-nance.Thefieldofbehavioralfinancea
3、roseinresponsetoevidencethatcallsintoquestionthetraditionalapproaches.Thisshouldnotbeviewedasashortcomingofthebehavioralapproach.Mostscientists,andnotjustsocialscientists,observeoutcomesbeforedevelopingatheoryormodel.Afterall,atheoryisawaytoex-plainanobservation.Muchofthischapte
4、rdescribesprospecttheory,analternativetoexpectedutil-1itytheorydevelopedbyDanielKahnemanandAmosTversky.Itandlike-mindedtheorieswereinspiredbydemonstratedviolationsofexpectedutilitytheory,sowebeginthischapterbyturningtosomeoftheseviolations.Threekeyaspectsofob-servedbehaviorimmed
5、iatelyfollow,andthesekeyaspectsimplyaparticularshapefortheprospecttheoryvaluefunction,whichisanalogoustotheutilityfunctionofexpectedutilitytheory.Anotherkeybuildingblockofprospecttheoryistheuseofdecisionweightsratherthanprobabilities.Weillustratehowthevaluefunctionandweightingfu
6、nctiontogetherallowonetoassessthevalueofprospectsinawaythatisbothsimilarandquitedifferentfromexpectedutilitytheory.Hypotheticalfunc-tionalformsareprovidedbasedonevidencefromactualdecisions.Next,Section3.3describeshowtheframeorpresentationofaproblemimpactsthedecisionapersonmakes.
7、Then,inSection3.4,wedescribehowpeopleuseaframingap-proachknownasmentalaccountingtosimplify,andsometimesdistort,decision-making.Finally,weconsidertheissueofmovingfromtheorytopractice.3738CHAPTER33.2PROSPECTTHEORYNormativetheorysaysthatreasonablepeopleshouldactinacertainway.Incon-
8、trast,positivetheorylooksatwhatpeopleactuallydo
