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1、UtilitytheoryandbargainingSomeintellectualhistoryoftheinteractionbetweenexperimentsandtheory(withimplicationsforexperimentaldesign)Twotheoriesthathavebeenfalsifiedbyexperimentaldata•Onehasretreatedfromcenterstageaseconomists’modelofchoiceforbargaining.•Onehasremaineda
2、seconomists’canonicalmodelofindividualchoice.•So,iftherewereanydoubt,somethingotherthansimple“falsificationism”isatwork….2Howdoweusetheories,andtestthem?•Ontheonehand,wecouldbelookingfortheoriesthataretruedescriptionsofbehavior.Inthisview,wecantesttheoriesbytryingtofa
3、lsifythem,andwhenwefalsifythemweshouldrejectthem.–Wemightalsochangeourbeliefswhenweseeconfirmingevidence(butthereisn’talogicallyimpeccabletheoryofexperimentalinduction…)•Ontheotherhand,economistsareoftenlookingfortheoriesthatwillserveasmodels,i.e.asgoodapproximationso
4、fobservedbehavior.Simplefalsificationmaynotcauseustorejectsuchtheories,since,ofcourse,approximationsarefalse.•Butinthatcase,wehavetothinkabouthowwewilldealwithfalsifyingdata,tohelpusdecidewhichmodelsareuseful,forwhat,underwhatcircumstances,andwhenwecanfindbetterapprox
5、imations.•(Thinkforexampleoftheapproximationthattheearthisround…)3Whatdowemeanbyrationality?•Varietiesofrationalityasgoaloriented,maximizingbehavior,–Ordinalutilitymaximization–Expectedutilitymaximization,(anditsimportantspecialcase,expectedvaluemaximization)–Subjecti
6、veexpectedutilitymaximization(aswellassomeofthecomponentpartssuchasBayesianbeliefformation).•(Notethatsomeofthesetheoriesarenested,soifsimplefalsificationwereenough,wecoulde.g.rejectordinalutilitymaximization,andallthestrongertheorieswouldfallwithit.We’llseethatisn’th
7、owthehistoryofthisdiscussionlooks…)•We’llalsoconsiderwhethertherearesomerobustphenomenathat,whiletheymaybeconsistentwithrationalitybroadlydefined,violatesomeofthesimplifyingassumptionsthatwesometimestakeforgranted.•(Notethattodaywe’regoingtobeconsidering“rationality”t
8、obeanysufficientlyconsistentgoal-orientedbehavior,we’renotgoingtogetintothequestionofwhetherparticulargoalsareirrational.)4T