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1、20.INTHEALPHABETSOUPToanybodyfamiliarwithMinsky’sfinancialinstabilityhypothesis,thedeteriorationofcreditstandardslookedworryinglyfamiliar.TheU.S.economywasexperiencingacreditboomofthesortusuallyassociatedwithpoorlyruneconomiesinLatinAmericaandpartsofEa
2、sternEurope:anoverlylaxmonetarypolicyhadunleashedaself-sustainingpropertybubbleandawassailofirresponsiblelending.Forthemoment,however,thecontinuingriseinhousepricesdisguisedtherot.ItisasafebetthatmostofthetoppolicymakersattheFedandintheBushadministrati
3、onhadneverheardofMinsky,or,iftheyhad,haddismissedhimasanalarmist—notthatthiswouldhavesurprisedhim.“Asapreviousfinancialcrisisrecedesintime,itisquitenaturalforcentralbankers,governmentofficials,bankers,businessmen,andeveneconomiststobelievethataneweraha
4、sarrived,”Minskywrote.“Cassandra-likewarningsthatnothingbasichaschanged,thatthereisafinancialbreakingpointthatwillleadtoadeepdepression,arenaturallyignoredinthesecircumstances.”Thewidespreadcomplacencyabouttheeconomywasn’tjustamatterofdisastermyopia,al
5、thoughthatcertainlyplayedarole.Amongpolicymakers,WallStreetexecutives,andeconomists,therewasalsoaconvictionthatadvancesinfinancialtechnologyhadenabledbanksandotherlenderstomanagethehazardsoftheirbusinessmoreeffectivelythantheyhadinthepast.Bysecuritizin
6、gloansratherthankeepingthemontheirbalancesheets,theycoulddistributecreditriskstoinvestors;throughtheapplicationofnewmathematicaltools,theycouldgaugepreciselywhatriskremainedontheirbooks;andbybuyingandsellingnewfangledderivatives,theycouldusethemarketto
7、hedgetheirexposures.InJune2006,fivemonthsafterhereplacedAlanGreenspan,BenBernankenotedthatinthepastabank’slendingdecisionshadreliedmainlyonthepersonaljudgmentsofloanofficers.“Today,retaillendinghasbecomemoreroutinizedasbankshavebecomeincreasinglyadepta
8、tpredictingdefaultriskbyapplyingstatisticalmodelstodata,suchascreditscores,”Bernankewenton.“Othertoolsincludeproprietaryinternaldebt-ratingmodelsandthird-partyprogramsthatusemarketdatatoanalyzetheriskofexposurestocorporateborrowersthati
