banking panics and business cycles clearinghouses and the origin of central banking in the united states

banking panics and business cycles clearinghouses and the origin of central banking in the united states

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时间:2018-02-10

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1、7BankingPanicsandBusinessCycles*GARYB.GORTON*7.1.INTRODUCTIONThenearlyuniversalexperienceofbankingpanicshasledmanygovernmentstoregulatethebankingindustry.Economists,too,haveincreasinglyfocusedonpanicsasevidenceofbankuniqueness.Yet,competingtheoriestoexplainbank-ingpanicshaveneverb

2、eentested.Arebankingpanicscausedbythesamerela-tionsgoverningconsumerbehaviorduringnonpanictimes?Arepanicsrandomevents,orarepanicsassociatedwithmovementsinexpectedreturns,inparticu-lar,withmovementsinperceivedriskwhicharepredictableonthebasisofpriorinformation?Ifso,whatistherelevant

3、information?UsingnewlyconstructeddatathisstudyaddressesthesequestionsbyexaminationofthesevenpanicsduringtheU.S.NationalBankingEra(18631914).Depositorbehaviorundersubsequentmonetaryregimesisalsoexamined.Inall,onehundredyearsofdepositorbehaviorareexamined.*ThecommentsandassistanceofA

4、ndyAbel,RobertBarro,PhillipCagan,BobDeFina,MikeDotsey,MarkEdwards,StanleyEngerman,LaurenFeinstone,ClaudiaGoldin,JackGuttentag,RobertKing,ErvMiller,JeremySiegel,AlanStockman,JohnTaylor,SteveZeldes,twoanony-mousreferees,andtheUniversityofPennsylvaniaMacroLunchGroup,werehelpfulandgrea

5、tlyappreciated.Theyarenotresponsibleforerrors.TheresearchassistanceofEarlPearsall,ElaineRoss,andWendyTannwasinvaluableforthiswork,aswastheprogrammingassistanceofSteveFranklin,andWellsVinton.ThankstoRobertAveryforhelpwiththeTobitprogram,CRAW-TRAN.Thisstudywasinitiatedwhiletheauthorw

6、asattheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia.ThestudywascompletedusingthePhiladelphiaFedscomputers,thankstoRichardLang.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarenotnecessarilythoseoftheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiaortheFederalReserveSystem.BankingPanicsandBusinessCycles201Acommonviewofpanicsist

7、hattheyarerandomevents,perhapsself-confirmingequilibriainsettingswithmultipleequilibria,causedbyshiftsinthebeliefsofagentswhichareunrelatedtotherealeconomy.Analternativeviewmakespanicslessmysterious.Agentscannotdiscriminatebetweentheriskinessofvariousbanksbecausetheylackbank-specific

8、information.Aggregateinfor

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