资源描述：
《banking panics and business cycles clearinghouses and the origin of central banking in the united states》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、7BankingPanicsandBusinessCycles*GARYB.GORTON*7.1.INTRODUCTIONThenearlyuniversalexperienceofbankingpanicshasledmanygovernmentstoregulatethebankingindustry.Economists,too,haveincreasinglyfocusedonpanicsasevidenceofbankuniqueness.Yet,competingtheoriestoexplainbank-ingpanicshaveneverb
2、eentested.Arebankingpanicscausedbythesamerela-tionsgoverningconsumerbehaviorduringnonpanictimes?Arepanicsrandomevents,orarepanicsassociatedwithmovementsinexpectedreturns,inparticu-lar,withmovementsinperceivedriskwhicharepredictableonthebasisofpriorinformation?Ifso,whatistherelevant
3、information?UsingnewlyconstructeddatathisstudyaddressesthesequestionsbyexaminationofthesevenpanicsduringtheU.S.NationalBankingEra(18631914).Depositorbehaviorundersubsequentmonetaryregimesisalsoexamined.Inall,onehundredyearsofdepositorbehaviorareexamined.*ThecommentsandassistanceofA
4、ndyAbel,RobertBarro,PhillipCagan,BobDeFina,MikeDotsey,MarkEdwards,StanleyEngerman,LaurenFeinstone,ClaudiaGoldin,JackGuttentag,RobertKing,ErvMiller,JeremySiegel,AlanStockman,JohnTaylor,SteveZeldes,twoanony-mousreferees,andtheUniversityofPennsylvaniaMacroLunchGroup,werehelpfulandgrea
5、tlyappreciated.Theyarenotresponsibleforerrors.TheresearchassistanceofEarlPearsall,ElaineRoss,andWendyTannwasinvaluableforthiswork,aswastheprogrammingassistanceofSteveFranklin,andWellsVinton.ThankstoRobertAveryforhelpwiththeTobitprogram,CRAW-TRAN.Thisstudywasinitiatedwhiletheauthorw
6、asattheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia.ThestudywascompletedusingthePhiladelphiaFedscomputers,thankstoRichardLang.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarenotnecessarilythoseoftheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiaortheFederalReserveSystem.BankingPanicsandBusinessCycles201Acommonviewofpanicsist
7、hattheyarerandomevents,perhapsself-confirmingequilibriainsettingswithmultipleequilibria,causedbyshiftsinthebeliefsofagentswhichareunrelatedtotherealeconomy.Analternativeviewmakespanicslessmysterious.Agentscannotdiscriminatebetweentheriskinessofvariousbanksbecausetheylackbank-specific
8、information.Aggregateinfor
