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1、BracketingDecisions6Consideryourfriendwhohasafinalpaperdueinarelativelyimportantclass.Thepaperwillbeworthabouthalfofhisgradeintheclass.ItisFridayat7:00P.M.,andhemustcompletethepaperbyMondaymorningat9:00A.M.Hebelievesthatthepaperwilltakeaboutsixhoursofhardworktocomplete.However,heisinthemiddleofar
2、ole-playingvideogameandisreallyitchingtoplaythegameforatleastanother20minutesbeforedivingintohispaper.Uponconsideringhisoptions,hebelievesthe20minuteswillnotsethimbacktoofarbecauseitissuchasmallamountoftime.Further,the20minuteswouldnotallowhimtomakeverymuchprogressatallonhispaperrelativetotheamo
3、untofprogresshemightbeabletomakeonthegame.Thus,hedecidestoplay.About20minuteslater,hefacesthesamedecision.But20minutesstillseemslikesuchashortperiodcomparedtotheamountoftimehehaslefttofinishthepaper.So,hecontinuestoplay.Atabout3:00A.M.,afterplayingforeighthours,hedecidestogotobedandworkonthepaper
4、thenextday.Heregretstheamountoftimehespentplayingvideogames,andrealizesthathecouldhavemadesignificantprogressonthepaperandcouldperhapshavecompleteditbythen.Helaments,“HowcouldIhaveplayedvideogamesforeighthoursinsteadofworkingonmypaper?”Consider,alternatively,acompanyheadedbytwopeople:aCEOandapres
5、identofoperations.TheCEOhasultimateresponsibilityforthecompany,andthepresidentdirectlyoverseestheeightteamleaderswhomakeuptheseniormanagement.Eachoftheteamleadershassomeautonomyandcandecideontheparticularprojectsthattheywillundertake.TheCEOisworriedthatalthoughthecompanyisprofitable,profitsaresmal
6、lerthanshewouldlike.Wonderingtherootcauseoftheproblem,shecallsonthepresidenttoconsidertheproblem.Thepresidentmeetsonebyonewitheachteamleader,askingfordetailedaccountsoftheirdecision-makingprocess.Hefindsthateachhasengagedinrelativelysafeprojects.Aswell,eachhasturneddownsomeriskyprojects.Forexampl
7、e,atypicalriskyprojectwouldreturn$20millionwithabout50percentprobabilityandlose$10millionwith50percentprobability.Consideringtheoverallbudgetofthisindividualteamisonlyaround$20million,thepresidentconsidersthedecisiontoscuttl
