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1、Translatetheunderlinedparts:GettingRich,ButNotRowdyWhyChina'srisecouldbemorepeacefulthanthoseofotherpowersBYJOSEFJOFFESunday,Apr.09,2006AfterEaster,China'spresidentHuJintaowillvisitWashingtontohuddlewithGeorgeW.Bush.Andwellthetwoofthemmight,fortheChinese-A
2、mericanrelationshipwilldecidethecourseofourcenturyjustasmuchasthehotwarswithGermanyandJapan,andthecoldwarwiththeSovietUnion,determinedthefateofthelastone.WhythrowChinainwithGermanyandJapan,twocountriesthatarenowasaggressiveaspussycats?Becauseallthreeexempl
3、ifytheoldestandmeanestproblemofworldpolitics:howtodealwithrisingpowers.Historyhaswrittenanironlawaboutsuchpowers'trajectories:First,theybecomerich,thenrowdy.Chinaisbutthelatestinstance.Asstatesconsolidatepoliticallyandthentakeoffeconomically,theybegintocla
4、ima"placeinthesun,"asthefutureGermanReichChancellorBernhardvonBulowfamouslyproclaimedin1897.WiththeravagesoftheCulturalRevolutionbehindit,China'seconomyhasbeengrowingataround10%ayearsincetheturnofthemillennium.Itsdefensebudgetisexpandingatthesameclip.Itrou
5、tinelythreatensTaiwanwithwar.IthasstakedoutterritorialclaimsintheSouthChinaSeaagainstlesserneighbors.Itdemandsaseatatthetableofthegreatpowers,anditforagesinsistentlyforoilandgasaroundtheplanet.BeijingissoftlysignalingWashington:"Moveover,theWesternPacifici
6、sourlake."Thisisafamiliarpattern.Inthelate19thcentury,therapidriserswereGermany,JapanandtheU.S.itself.Thoughoceansapart,theyembarkedonsimilarcareers.Thefirststepwasnationalunification.InJapan,theMeijiRestorationconsolidatedfragmented,feudalpowerintoatechno
7、craticandimperialstate.InGermany,Bismarckfused25kingdomsandduchiesintotheSecondReich.IntheU.S.,theCivilWarendedwiththeUnionrestored.Steptwowasrampanteconomicgrowth,withallthreeovertakingtheestablishedpowersintheproductionofiron,steelandenergy--thoseindustr
8、iesthatwouldsoonyieldguns,bombsandships.Stepthree:expansionandwar.TheJapanesetookonRussia,Chinaand,in1941,theUnitedStates.TheGermansmadetwobidsforhegemonyinWorldWarsIandII.Thoughademocracy,theU.S.itselfcouldn
