加工贸易、一般贸易及外部需求冲击传导机制

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1、加工贸易、一般贸易及外部需求冲击传导机制[摘要]进入21世纪以来，中国经济出现了两个特征：一是宏观经济波动与外部需求冲击如影随形；二是外部需求结构演变为加工贸易和一般贸易两分天下。在这样一个外部需求结构下，外部需求冲击的传导机制出现异质性特征，即来自加工贸易部门的外部需求冲击对投资和进出口产生更大影响，而来自一般贸易部门的外部需求冲击则对GDP产生更大影响。面对外部需求冲击，上述异质性效应造成的后果就是：中国无法通过单纯地调整贸易结构中的任何一部分来降低外部需求冲击造成的影响。鉴于此，提高本国企业对价值链的控制力，或者进一步多元化外部市场，都是政策的应有之义。[关键词]

2、加工贸易；一般贸易；外部需求冲击ProcessingTrade，NormalTradeandtheTransmissionChannelsofForeignDemandShockLangJinhuan1ShiJinchuan2（1.CollegeofEconomics，ZhejiangUniversity，Hangzhou310027，China；　2.CenterforResearchofPrivateEconomy，ZhejiangUniversity，Hangzhou24310027，China）Abstract：Inthenewmillennium，twof

3、eatureshavedevelopedinChinasmacro-economy：Thefirstisthecloseassociationofmacroeconomicfluctuationswithforeigndemandshocks；thesecondistheadditionofprocessingtradetotheforeigndemandstructureanditseventualprecedenceovernormaltradeingrossvalue.Owingtothedevelopmentofthesetwofeatures，theclas

4、sicInternationalRealBusinessCyclesTheoryhasfailedtoexplainChinasmacroeconomicfluctuationandmeanwhiletherehasbeenlittleresearchonsuchatypicalforeigndemandstructure.Tofillthegapbetweentheoryandreality，thispaperfurthercategorizesthetradesectorintheInternationalRealBusinessCyclesTheoryintop

5、rocessingtradeandnormaltrade.Undersuchacategorization，twokeyassumptionsareputforward：（1）thehomeelasticityofsubstitutionforintermediategoodsisrelativelysmallintheprocessingtradesector；（2）thehomevalueaddedforintermediategoodsisrelativelysmallinthe24processingtradesector.Withtheseassumption

6、s，twocontradictorymechanismsofthehomeeffectofforeigndemandshocksemergeinpartialequilibrium：Assumption1meansthattheprocessingtradesectorisadjustedmorereadilyinthecaseofforeigndemandshocks；Assumption2meansthatitisadjustedlessreadilyinthatcase.Aftercalibratingandsimulatingthetheoreticalmode

7、l，thispaperexaminesthecompoundeffectofthetwocontradictorymechanismsingeneralequilibrium.TheresultsshowthattheforeigndemandshocksintheprocessingtradesectormorestronglyaffectChinasinvestmentandimport/export，whilethoseinthenormaltradesectormorestronglyaffectChinasGDP.These