安全区域止损法.doc

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1、安全区域止损法（中英文对照）Onceinatrade,whereshouldyouputyourstop?Thisisoneofthehardestquestionsintechnicalanalysis.Afteransweringit,you’llfaceanevenharderone-whenandwheretomovethatstopwiththepassageoftime.Putastoptoocloseandit’llgetwhackedbysomemeaninglessintradayswing.Putittoofar,andyou’llhaveveryskimpy

2、protection.一旦进场了，你应该在哪里止损？这是技术分析最难回答的问题。就算回答了，你还要面对更难的问题——随着时间的推移，止损要如何移动？如果止损太近了，市场没有意义的波动也会把它扫掉。如果止损放的太远了，保护又不够。TheParabolicSystem,describedinTradingforaLiving,triedtotacklethisproblembymovingstopsclosertothemarketeachday,acceleratingwheneverastockoracommodityreachedanewextreme.Thetroublewi

3、thParabolicwasthatitkeptmovingevenifthemarketstayedflatandoftengothitbymeaninglessnoise.我在《以交易为生》中谈过抛物线系统，想通过每天移动止损的方式解决这个问题，当股票或商品期货到达极限价格时更好用。抛物线的问题是，即使市场是横盘，或者是无意义的波动，系统也总是在动，容易被扫止损。Theconceptofsignalandnoisestatesthatthetrendisthesignalandthenontrendingmotionisthenoise.Astockorafuturemayb

4、einanuptrendoradowntrend,butthenoiseofitsrandomchopcanobscureitssignal.Tradingattherightedgeishardbecausethenoiselevelishigh.IdevelopedSafeZonetotrailpriceswithstopstightenoughtoprotectcapitalbutremoteenoughtokeepclearofmostrandomfluctuations.信号的意思是说趋势就是信号，噪音的意思是说没有方向的波动叫噪音。股票或期货也许上涨或下跌，但是随机的

5、噪音会让趋势变得模糊。正确交易很难，因为噪音太大。我发明的安全区域能跟踪价格，用止损保护资金，还能远离大部分随机波动。Engineersdesignfilterstosuppressnoiseandallowthesignaltocomethrough.Ifthetrendisthesignal,thenthecountertrendmotionisthenoise.Whenthetrendisup,wecandefinenoiseasthatpartofeachday’srangethatprotrudesbelowthepreviousday’slow.Whenthetren

6、disdown,wecandefinenoiseasthatpartofeachday’srangethatprotrudesabovethepreviousday’shigh.SafeZonemeasuresmarketnoiseandplacesstopsatamultipleofnoiselevelawayfromthemarket.工程师发明了滤网在过滤噪音，让信号通过。如果趋势就是信号，那么逆势的波动就是噪音。当趋势上涨时，每天波动超过前一天最低点就是噪音。当趋势下跌，每天波动超过前一天最高点就是噪音。安全区域计算噪音，让止损点远离噪音。Wemayusetheslope

7、ofa22-dayEMAtodefinethetrend.Youneedtochoosethelengthofthelookbackperiodformeasuringnoiselevel.Ithastobelongenoughtotrackrecentbehaviorbutshortenoughtoberelevantforcurrenttrading.Aperiodof10to20daysworkswell,orwecanmakeourlookbackperiod100day