墨西哥的非法卷烟消费.pptx

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1、ILLICITCIGARETTECONSUMPTIONINMEXICOAReportbyOxfordEconomicsSeptember2020EXECUTIVESUMMARYSCOPETOTALCIGARETTECONSUMPTIONILLICITCONSUMPTIONBREAKDOWNIMPACTONGOVERNMENTREVENUESANNEXEXECUTIVESUMMARYIllicitConsumptioninMexicoOver7.2billionillicitcigaretteswereconsume

2、dinMexicointhelasttwelve-IllicitConsumptionwascomposedofamixofNon-DomesticInflows(equivalentto3.4billioncigarettes)andDomesticIllicitcigarettes(3.8billion).ThemajorityofNon-DomesticIllicitwasfoundtooriginatefromChina,withsomefurtherInflowsidentifiedfromIndia.T

3、herewerealsosomeminorCounterfeitInflows.ForegoneExciseandVATreceiptsfromIllicitConsumptionresultedinTaxLossesofanestimatedMXN12.1billion.3Over1inevery6cigarettesconsumedinMexicopreCOVID-19wereestimatedtooriginatethroughillicitchannelsinthelasttwelve-monthperio

4、dtoFeb2020.7.2billionIllicitConsumptionEXECUTIVESUMMARYSCOPETOTALCIGARETTECONSUMPTIONILLICITCONSUMPTIONBREAKDOWNIMPACTONGOVERNMENTREVENUESANNEXSCOPEEstimatingillicitcigaretteconsumptioninMexicoTheprimaryobjectiveofthisreportistoprovideanindependentandrobustass

5、essmentofthesizeandscaleoftheIllicitConsumptionofcigarettesinMexico.Thepurposeofthisreportisto:EstablishandvalidateIllicitIncidencelevels,reviewingandrefiningestimatesusingavailablesourcessuchasEmptyPackSurveys;EstimatethevolumeofIllicitConsumption,includingwh

6、erepossibleabreakdownbyorigin;EstimatetheannualgovernmentTaxLossfromindirecttaxesoncigarettesincludingExciseTaxandVAT.Estimatesarebasedonthemostrecent12-monthperiodbeforetheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic,encompassingtheperiodMarch2019-February2020,hereafterthe‘

7、LastTwelveMonths(LTM)toFeb2020’.FinancialsupportforthisreportwasprovidedbyPMI,BAT,andJTI.OxfordEconomicsenjoyedacademicfreedomandfulleditorialcontroloftheanalysis.Wearegratefulfortheinputsanddataprovidedbyindustrystakeholders.5EXECUTIVESUMMARYSCOPETOTALCIGARET

8、TECONSUMPTIONILLICITCONSUMPTIONBREAKDOWNIMPACTONGOVERNMENTREVENUESANNEXTOTALCIGARETTECONSUMPTIONLegalconsumptionAnestimated35.3billioncigaretteswerelegallyconsumedinMexicointheLTMt