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1、FoundationsofFinanceArthurKeownJohnD.MartinJ.WilliamPetty1Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6TheMeaningandMeasurementofRiskandReturnChapter62Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6LearningObjectivesDefineandmeasuretheexpectedrateofreturnofanindividualinvestment.Defineandmeasuretheriski
2、nessofanindividualinvestment.Comparethehistoricalrelationshipbetweenriskandratesofreturninthecapitalmarkets.Explainhowdiversifyinginvestmentsaffectstheriskinessandexpectedrateofreturnofaportfolioorcombinationofassets.Explaintherelationshipbetweenaninvestor’srequired
3、rateofreturnonaninvestmentandtheriskinessoftheinvestment.3Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6PrinciplesUsedinthisChapterPrinciple1:TheRisk-ReturnTrade-off–WeWon’tTakeonAdditionalRiskUnlessWeExpecttoBeCompensatedwithAdditionalReturn.Principle3:Cash-NotProfits-IsKing.4Keown,M
4、artin,Petty-Chapter62.ExpectedReturn5Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6ExpectedCashFlowsandExpectedReturnTheexpectedbenefitsorreturns,aninvestmentgeneratescomeintheformofcashflows.Cashflowsareusedtomeasurereturns(notaccountingprofits).6Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6Theexpecte
5、dcashflowistheweightedaverageofthepossiblecashflowoutcomessuchthattheweightsaretheprobabilitiesoftheoccurrenceofthevariousstatesoftheeconomy.ExpectedCashflow(X)=ΣPi*xiWherePi=probabilitiesofoutcomeixi=cashflowsinoutcomeiExpectedCashFlowsandExpectedReturn7Keown,Marti
6、n,Petty-Chapter6MeasuringtheExpectedCashFlowandExpectedReturnStateoftheeconomyProbabilityofthestatesCashflowfromtheinvestment%Return(CashFlow/Inv.Cost)EconomicRecession20%$1,00010%($1,000/$10,000)ModerateEconomicGrowth30%1,20012%($1,200/$10,000)StrongEconomicGrowth5
7、0%1,40014%($1,400/$10,000)8Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6ExpectedCashFlowExpectedCashflow=ΣPi*xi=.2*1000+.3*1200+.5*1400=$1,260on$10,000investment9Keown,Martin,Petty-Chapter6ExpectedRateofReturnWecanalsodeterminethe%ofexpectedreturnon$1,000investment.ExpectedReturnisth
8、eweightedaverageofallthepossiblereturns,weightedbytheprobabilitythateachreturnwilloccur.ExpectedReturn(%)=ΣPi*kiWherePi=probabilitiesofout