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时间:2020-08-29
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1、CHAPTER13:EMPIRICALEVIDENCEONSECURITYRETURNSCHAPTER13:EMPIRICALEVIDENCEONSECURITYRETURNSPROBLEMSETS1.Evenifthesingle-factorCCAPM(withaconsumption-trackingportfoliousedastheindex)performsbetterthantheCAPM,itisstillquitepossiblethattheconsumptionportfoliodoesnotcapturethesizeandgrowthcharacteristicsc
2、apturedbytheSMB(i.e.,smallminusbigcapitalization)andHML(i.e.,highminuslowbook-to-marketratio)factorsoftheFama-Frenchthree-factormodel.Therefore,itisexpectedthattheFama-Frenchmodelwithconsumptionprovidesabetterexplanationofreturnsthandoesthemodelwithconsumptionalone.2.Wealthandconsumptionshouldbepos
3、itivelycorrelatedand,therefore,marketvolatilityandconsumptionvolatilityshouldalsobepositivelycorrelated.Periodsofhighmarketvolatilitymightcoincidewithperiodsofhighconsumptionvolatility.The‘conventional’CAPMfocusesonthecovarianceofsecurityreturnswithreturnsforthemarketportfolio(whichinturntracksaggr
4、egatewealth)whiletheconsumption-basedCAPMfocusesonthecovarianceofsecurityreturnswithreturnsforaportfoliothattracksconsumptiongrowth.However,totheextentthatwealthandconsumptionarecorrelated,bothversionsoftheCAPMmightrepresentpatternsinactualreturnsreasonablywell.Toseethisformally,supposethattheCAPMa
5、ndtheconsumption-basedmodelareapproximatelytrue.AccordingtotheconventionalCAPM,themarketpriceofriskequalsexpectedexcessmarketreturndividedbythevarianceofthatexcessreturn.Accordingtotheconsumption-betamodel,thepriceofriskequalsexpectedexcessmarketreturndividedbythecovarianceofRMwithg,wheregistherate
6、ofconsumptiongrowth.ThiscovarianceequalsthecorrelationofRMwithgtimestheproductofthestandarddeviationsofthevariables.Combiningthetwomodels,thecorrelationbetweenRMandgequalsthestandarddeviationofRMdividedbythestandarddeviationofg.Accordingly,ifthecorrelationbetweenRMandgisrelativelystable,thenanincre
7、aseinmarketvolatilitywillbeaccompaniedbyanincreaseinthevolatilityofconsumptiongrowth.13-10CHAPTER13:EMPIRICALEVIDENCEONSECURITYRETURNSNote:Forthefollowingproblems,thefocusisontheestimationprocedure.Tokeepth
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