管理科学12-决策分析解析课件.ppt

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1、Chapter12DecisionAnalysisIntroductiontoManagementScience8thEditionbyBernardW.TaylorIII1Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisComponentsofDecisionMakingDecisionMakingwithoutProbabilitiesDecisionMakingwithProbabilitiesDecisionAnalysiswithAdditionalInformationUtilityChapterTopics2Chapter12-DecisionAnaly

2、sisTable12.1PayoffTableAstateofnatureisanactualeventthatmayoccurinthefuture.Apayofftableisameansoforganizingadecisionsituation,presentingthepayoffsfromdifferentdecisionsgiventhevariousstatesofnature.DecisionAnalysisComponentsofDecisionMaking3Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisDecisionsituation:Dec

3、ision-MakingCriteria:maximax,maximin,minimax,minimaxregret,Hurwicz,andequallikelihoodTable12.2PayoffTablefortheRealEstateInvestmentsDecisionAnalysisDecisionMakingwithoutProbabilities4Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisTable12.3PayoffTableIllustratingaMaximaxDecisionInthemaximaxcriterionthedecision

4、makerselectsthedecisionthatwillresultinthemaximumofmaximumpayoffs;anoptimisticcriterion.DecisionMakingwithoutProbabilitiesMaximaxCriterion5Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisTable12.4PayoffTableIllustratingaMaximinDecisionInthemaximincriterionthedecisionmakerselectsthedecisionthatwillreflectthemax

5、imumoftheminimumpayoffs;apessimisticcriterion.DecisionMakingwithoutProbabilitiesMaximinCriterion6Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisTable12.6RegretTableIllustratingtheMinimaxRegretDecisionRegretisthedifferencebetweenthepayofffromthebestdecisionandallotherdecisionpayoffs.Thedecisionmakerattemptstoa

6、voidregretbyselectingthedecisionalternativethatminimizesthemaximumregret.DecisionMakingwithoutProbabilitiesMinimaxRegretCriterion7Chapter12-DecisionAnalysisTheHurwiczcriterionisacompromisebetweenthemaximaxandmaximincriterion.Acoefficientofoptimism,,isameasureofthedecisionmaker’soptimism.

7、TheHurwiczcriterionmultipliesthebestpayoffbyandtheworstpayoffby1-.,foreachdecision,andthebestresultisselected.DecisionValuesApartmentbuilding$50,000(.4)+30,000(.6)=38,000Officebuilding$100,000(.4)-40,000(.6)=16,000Warehouse$30,000(.4)+10,000(.6)=18,000DecisionMaki