曼昆宏观经济学ppt课件.ppt

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1、GovernmentDebtandBudgetDeficits16Inthischapter,youwilllearn:aboutthesizeoftheU.S.government’sdebt,andhowitcomparestothatofothercountriesproblemsmeasuringthebudgetdeficitthetraditionalandRicardianviewsofthegovernmentdebtotherperspectivesonthedebtIndebtednessoftheworld’sgove

2、rnmentsCountryGovDebt(%ofGDP)CountryGovDebt(%ofGDP)Japan173U.K.59Italy113Netherlands55Greece101Norway46Belgium92Sweden45U.S.A.73Spain44France73Finland40Portugal71Ireland33Germany65Korea33Canada63Denmark28Austria63Australia14RatioofU.S.govtdebttoGDPRevolutionaryWarCivilWarW

3、W1WW2IraqWarTheU.S.experienceinrecentyearsEarly1980sthroughearly1990sdebt-GDPratio:25.5%in1980,48.9%in1993duetoReagantaxcuts,increasesindefensespending&entitlementsEarly1990sthrough2000$290bdeficitin1992,$236bsurplusin2000debt-GDPratiofellto32.5%in2000duetorapidgrowth,stoc

4、kmarketboom,taxhikesTheU.S.experienceinrecentyearsEarly2000sthereturnofhugedeficits,duetoBushtaxcuts,2001recession,IraqwarThe2008-2009recessionfallintaxrevenueshugespendingincreases(bailoutsoffinancialinstitutionsandautoindustry,stimuluspackage)Thetroublinglong-termfiscal

5、outlookTheU.S.populationisaging.Healthcarecostsarerising.SpendingonentitlementslikeSocialSecurityandMedicareisgrowing.Deficitsandthedebtareprojectedtosignificantlyincrease…PercentofU.S.populationage65+Percentofpop.58111417202319501960197019801990200020102020203020402050act

6、ualprojectedU.S.governmentspendingonMedicareandSocialSecurityPercentofGDP02468195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005CBOprojectedU.S.federalgovtdebtintwoscenariosPercentofGDP0501001502002503002005201020152020202520302035204020452050optimisticscenariopessimisticsc

7、enarioProblemsmeasuringthedeficit1.Inflation2.Capitalassets3.Uncountedliabilities4.ThebusinesscycleMEASUREMENTPROBLEM1:InflationSupposetherealdebtisconstant,whichimpliesazerorealdeficit.Inthiscase,thenominaldebtDgrowsattherateofinflation:D/D=orD=DThereporteddeficit(nom

8、inal)isDeventhoughtherealdeficitiszero.Hence,shouldsubtractDfromthereporteddeficittocor