挪威能源未来的专家观点.docx

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1、ContentsAbbreviations2Summary31Preamble:EnergyTransitioninaPost-COVID-19World52ChallengesandOpportunitiesforNorway83Norway’sEnergyFuture134ConclusionsandRecommendations38Annex:ExpertPerspectives40AbouttheEditors90AbouttheInterviewees91AbouttheAuthors95Acknowledgments96AbbreviationsCCScarbonc

2、aptureandstorageCCUcarboncaptureanduseCCUScarboncapture,useandstorageCOPConferenceofthePartiesEIAEnergyInformationAdministrationEVelectricvehicleGHGgreenhousegasGtCO2egigatonnesofcarbondioxideequivalentIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIPCCInternationalPanelonClimateChangeLUCland-usechangemtoemill

3、iontonnesofoilequivalentNETsnegativeemissionstechnologiesSAFsustainableaviationfuelsSMRsteammethanereformerSWFsovereignwealthfundUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeUNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeSummary•Theworldisundergoingatransitionawayfromfossilfuelstowardsrenewabl

4、eenergy.However,thespeedanddepthofthistransitionisuncertainandcontroversial.ThiswillhavesignificantimplicationsforNorway,oneoftheworld’slargestexportersofbothenergyandcapital.•Withinternationaleffortstolimitincreasesinglobaltemperatureto2°C,andascloseaspossibleto1.5°C,appearingincreasinglyof

5、f-track,thereisanurgentneedforarapidmoveawayfromtheunabateduseoffossilfuels.•Anacceleratedenergytransitionwillhavedeepimplicationsforfutureoilandgasdemand.Thereisnowadebateoverwhenglobaldemandwillpeak.However,whathappensafterdemandhaspeakedisperhapsmorecritical–willtherebeanextendedplateau,a

6、gentledeclineorasuddencollapse?•Thepost-peaktrendwillimpactoilexporterstovaryingdegrees,intermsofreducedvolumesandlowerprices,astheycompeteforashrinkingmarket.Thereisalsoadebateoverwhethergascanactasabridgebetweencoal-poweredelectricityandrenewables,orwhetherrenewablesdirectlyreplacecoal.•Th

7、ereisgrowingpublicandpoliticalpressureacrossmostEUmemberstatesformoreambitiousactiononclimatechange.ThisparticularlyaffectsNorwayasasupplierofenergytotheEU,andasamemberoftheEuropeanEconomicAreaobligedtoadoptatleastsimilarbindingdomesticcarbonreduct