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1、EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesCruiseDoldrumsDon’tLastForever:InitiatingCoverageofCruiseTravel&Leisure
3、InitiationInthenearterm,weexpecttheCOVID-19pandemicandthesubsequentsuspensionofsailingstoweighheavilyoncruisers.Stocksareatall-timelows,andallthreeoperatorsarenowincashprese
4、rvationmodeafterliquidity-enhancingcreditagreements.Withtheriskofaliquiditycrunchpartiallypricedin,wethinkcurrentlevelsofferanattractiveentrypoint.Althoughthecruiseindustrymaytakeyearstoregainpricingparity,wethinktheunmatchedvaluepropositionoftheproductwilldriveitsrecovery.Acruis
5、eincludesaccommodations,activities,meals,etc.ata50-70%discounttomanyothervacationoptions.Weareunabletothinkofavacationalternativethatinvolvesinternationaltravel,multiplecities,entertainment(fromliveshowstoshoreexcursions),aswellasresort-likeamenitiesatthispricepoint.Additionally,
6、wethinkthecruisedemographicisfavorableforarecoveryindemand,andcouldbewhy55%ofcruisecustomers,accordingtoourchecks,areoptingforacruisecreditvs.cash,postCOVID-19disruption.Wethinkthisisaverypowerfuldatapointhighlightingtheresiliencyintheproduct,andspeaksvolumesintermsoffuturedemand
7、fortheindustry,especiallyinthecontextofcurrentsentimentwhichquestionsiftheproductwillevenexistinthefuture.Keepinmind,82%ofcruisecustomersarerepeatusers,andtheaverageageofaconsumertravelingbycruisetotheCaribbeanis~42years.Further,inbothourcruiseandbroaderleisureindustrychecks,ther
8、eisacleartrendinthepostCOVID-19worldtowardsactivitiesthataccommodatedrive-tocustomersrelativetothosethatrequirelonghaulairtravel,inpartduetocost.Atthispoint,wethinkoperatorshaveclosetoayearormoreofliquidityinazerorevenueenvironment,whichinpartremovestheguessinggamefromwhencruisew
9、illreturnin’20.Whilewehave’20estimates,ourthesisisbasedonarecoveryofdemandin’21andbeyond.Cruisehasnavigatedturbulenceinthepast(Concordiasinkinganddeaths,SARS,‘15/’16Terrorism,etc.)andwethinkdrive-tonatureofmanyports,repeatcruiserswhounderstandproduct,andvaluepropositionwillaidint
10、herecoveryintheyearstocome.WePreferRoyal
