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1、EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesTimeshareVacationfromIsolationTravel&Leisure
3、AssumingCoverageBenChaikenisassumingleadcoverageofthetimesharesectorwithanOutperformratingonMarriotVacations(VAC,$100TP,42%upsidepotential,from$132TP),OutperformratingonHiltonGrandVacations(HGV,$23TP,31%upsidepotent
4、ial,from$37TP)andanOutperformratingonWyndhamDestinations(WYND,$32TP,41%upsidepotential,fromNeutral,$53TP).Weareconstructiveontheindustryatitscore,givenstrongFCFgeneration,opportunityforfurtherconsolidation,andaresilientbusinessmodelintimesofeconomicdisruption.WhileCOVID-19presentsanunprecedente
5、dchallengefortheindustry,wearepositiveonthetimeshareindustryasawholeandbelievethelargelydrive-toandprepaidnatureoftheproductwillbethedrivingforcebehinditsrecovery.Longerterm,wepreferthoseoperatorswhichofferapoints-basedprogramandseeadiminishedneedfortraditionalexchangeprograms.Asweappeartobeent
6、eringintoarecession,wethinktheindustryisinabetterpositionthanin‘08/’09,givenamorerobusttimesharesecuritizationmarket,warehousefacilitiesthatprovideadditionalliquidity,andanindustrywideshifttowardmoreconservativeproductsandawayfromsellinghighervolatilitychannels.MarriotVacations:VACrunsoneoftheb
7、esttimeshareorganizationsfromaconsumerperspectivegiventhevastnetworkandflexibilityofpoints,isoperatedbyatrustedmanagementteamandhasawarenessamonginvestors(VACwasspunoutofMARin2011).Aswelookto2021,wethinkVACisbestpositionedamongpeersforoutperformance,givenitsflexiblepointsproduct,whichwethinkmay
8、helpderisktheportfoliovs.fixedweekpeersascustomershaveultimateflexibilityintheirtraveldestination.Longerterm,weseefourgrowthdriversthatwethinkwillfuelupsidetoearnings,andvaluation:(1)digitaltransfer,(2)“SPG/H”loyaltybaseoverhaul,(3)VistanaVPGgapclosure,and(4)salescenterdevelopment/(re)openings.
9、HiltonGrandVacations:HGVwasspunoutofHLTin2017andhashadamixedtrackrecordinthepublicmarkets.However,weseeopportunitylongertermwithseveralunderappreciatedearningsdrivers.OurOutperformratingforHGVisbasedonthreemainpillars:(1)astronger
