瑞信-全球-制药业-全球制药业：2020年制药业价值策略结论-2019.12.17-.pdf

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1、17December2019EquityResearchGlobalGlobalPharmaceuticalsPharmaValues2020strategicconclusionsPharmaceuticals&Biotechnology

2、SectorReviewConnectionsSeriesErratum:ThisreportreplacesanearlierversionpublishedtodayinwhichweerroneouslystatedinthesecondbulletonthefrontpagethattheUSstocks

3、weretradingonahigherP/EthanEUpeers.ThiswasanTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourerrorinthewordingratherthanintheunderlyinganalysis.Wecorrectthewordingbelow.exceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtodeliverincisivecross-sectorandcross-border■InthisPharmaValues2020report

4、,weusevaluationandsixstrategicmetricsthematicinsightsforourclients.to‘forcerank’48globalpharma/biotechcompanies(withmarketscaps/netResearchAnalystspresentvalues(NPV)of>$5bn).Combined,thesecompanieshaveamarketcapof$3,270bn,2019Etotalpharmasalesof$630bnandannualR&Dspendof$139bn.E

5、uropeanPharmaTeamPharmaValuesisourproprietaryvaluationtoolforthePharmaandBiotechindustry.It442078880304offersaproduct-by-productvaluationbasedonNPVoverthelifecycleofeachdrug.creditsuisse.pharmateam@credit-suisse.comThelong-termrecordofpickingMajorPharmaandJapanesestocksbasedona

6、nTrungHuynhEV/NPVstrategyhasbeenstrong,witha10-yearmarket-neutralreturnof231%.442078882102BasedonourOctober2018stockscreen,thismethodologyhasproducedamarket-trung.huynh@credit-suisse.comneutralreturnof14%toDecember2019,withtheMajorPharmacomponentGretelJanugeneratingareturnof5%a

7、ndJapanPharma24%.61282054028■Keyindustrytakeawaysfor2020:1)ValuationonEV/NPVisinlinewithhistoricalgretel.janu@credit-suisse.comaveragesdespitecurrenthighshort-termsalesgrowth.2)USandEUMajorNPVvaluationscontinuetodiverge,withUSMajorsscreeningasmoreexpensiveonDominicLunn442078830

8、471EV/NPVbasedonlowerpipelinevalue,lowerR&Dsuccessrates,lowerexposuretodominic.lunn@credit-suisse.comhigh-growthemergingmarketsandhigherexposuretopatentexpiries.Incontrast,onaPEbasiswhichreflectsonlyshort-termEPS,EUstockslookmoreexpensivethanMattMiksicUSpeers.3)Weexpectsimilarl

9、evelsofpipelinetobede-riskedin2020asinrecent2123254381