世界经济论坛-把握新经济的脉搏：首席经济学家的观点（英文）-2020.1.pdf

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1、TakingthePulseoftheNewEconomyChiefEconomistsOutlookPlatformforShapingtheFutureoftheNewEconomyandSocietyJanuary20202TakingthePulseoftheNewEconomyChiefEconomistsOutlookThisbriefingistheoutcomeofconsultationswithleadingChiefEconomistsfromboththepublicandpr

2、ivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sPlatformforShapingtheFutureoftheNewEconomyandSociety.Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfocusandactionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinearly2020.The

3、briefingwillbeissuedonabi-annualbasisgoingforward.WorldEconomicForum91-93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744Email:contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.orgWorldEconomicForum®Nopartofthispublicationmaybereprodu

4、cedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.REF0801203Thenewdecadeopenswithafragilegrowthoutlook,1socialtensionsoverBackdroptheevidentpolarizationofeconomicoutcomesandhighlevelsofun

5、certainty.Thecurrentchallengesaresignificant(figures1-4).Yettrustininstitutionshaserodedandpolicy-makingisbecomingincreasinglyreactivetosingleissuesorbrinkmanship,whichhasmadepolicyactionlesspredictableanddependable.Thishasbeenparticularlytruefortradepo

6、licy,whererecentpolicymovesbymajortradingnationshavebeenperceivedashighlydisruptive.Asimilarkindofpolicyuncertaintyisspringingfromrivalriesinthetechnologyarena,mostrecentlyinthecaseof5G.Additionally,traditionalpolicymechanismshavebecomelessreliable—firs

7、tandforemost,coreelementsofmonetaryandcompetitionpolicy.Monetarypolicytoolsthattraditionallyusedtosmoothovernegativeshocksorcreatepositiveeconomicmomentumhavelostmuchfirepowerasinterestratesinmajorcurrencyareasremainclosetozero.Thenewdynamicsofthedigita

8、leconomyhavealsoleftcompetitionauthoritieswithanoutdatedtoolkit.Structuralreformstoenablethetransitiontowardsaneweconomyarerevealingdelicatetrade-offs,atleastintheshortterm,betweenthedigitalandgreentransformationsaswellasadaptati