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1、国际贸易InternationalTradeOutlineoftheTalkIntegrationofTradeDisintegrationofProductionChina’sCurrentTradeSituationSino-U.S.TradeRelationshipTraditionalTradeTheoryCurrentResearchTopicsQ&Adocin/sundae_mengIntegrationofTradeHowmuchdowetrade?TradestillremainsaseeminglysmallfractionofGDPforrichcountries.T
2、hedecadesleadingupto1913wasagoldenageofglobaltradeandinvestment.Theglobalintegrationoftradekeepsthesamelevel.Table1(Feenstra,2019)docin/sundae_mengdocin/sundae_mengIntegrationofTradedocin/sundae_mengTheWorldIsMoreIntegratedThanEverSomefactsarehidden.Industrialcountrieshaveincreasingsharesoftheire
3、conomiesdevotedtoservicesratherthanmanufacturing.Makecomparisonfromdifferentviews.Shouldmeasuremerchandisetraderelativetomerchandisevalue-added.Almostallcountrieshaveexperiencedsubstantialgrowthintrade.Table2docin/sundae_mengdocin/sundae_mengTable1.2MerchandiseTradeRelativetoGDPandMerchandiseValu
4、e-Added,1960-1990(percent)docin/sundae_mengTable1.1U.S.MerchandiseTradebyIndustry,2019,SharesofTotalTradeandProductionorUse(percentages)Table1.3PercentageDistributionofExportsbyMajorTradingGroups,1985-2019HowtoExplainGrowingTrade?TradeLiberalizationGATT/WTORegionalTradeAgreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CAR
5、ICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASEAN,SPARTECA.FallingTransportationCost2/5tradegrowthcanbeexplainedbythesetwofactors.Whentradingpartnersbecomesmoresimilarinsize.--Example:WorldGDP=150;Scenario1:CountryA=100;countryB=25,countryC=25Scenario2:CountryA=50;countryB=50,countryC=50Maximumexportsaredifferent.docin/s
6、undae_mengDisintegrationofProductionDisintegrationofproductionitselfleadstomoretradedue,inlargepart,tothecalculationmethod.OutsourcingBarbiedollstory(Tempest,2019)Sellforabout$10intheU.S.MadeinMainlandChina,butexportfromHongKongfor$265centscovermaterialscost,35centspayforChineselabor.Theremaining
7、1$fortransportationinChinaTheremaining7$fortransportation,marketing,wholesalingandretailing.$1fortheMattel.docin/sundae_mengOutsourcingFirstmeasurement:tradeiscategorizedbytheend-user.TheU.S.tradeshiftsawayfromagricult
