基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估-论文.pdf

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1、doi：10．11676／qxXb2O14．050气象学报基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估勾亚彬h刘黎平杨杰吴瓣GOUYabin，。'。LIULipingYANGJieWUChong1．中国气象科学研究院灾害天气重点实验室，北京，1000812．中国科学院大学，北京，1000493．杭州市气象局，杭卅I，3100514．成都信息工程学院，成都，6102251．StateKeyLaboratoryofSevereWeather，ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalScience，Beijing100081，China2．Universityof

2、ChineseAcademyofSciences，Beijing100049，China3．HangzhouMeteorologicalBureau，Hangzhou310051，China4．ChengduUniversityofInformationTechnology，Chengdu610225，China2013-10-17收稿，2014—04—16改回．勾亚彬，刘黎平，杨杰，吴狮．2014．基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估．气象学报，72(4)：731—748GouYabin，LiuLipng，YangJie，WuChong．2014．Operationa

3、lapplicationandevaluationofthequantitativeprecipitationesti-matesalgorithmbasedonthemulti-radarmosaic．ActaMeteorologicaSinica，72(4)：731—748AbstractThereal-timesystemofQPE(QuantitativePrecipitationEstimates)togetherwiththereal—timeevaluationbasedonthemulti—radarmosaichasbeensuccessfullyimplemente

4、dintheoperationattheWeatherBureauofHangzhouinZhejiangProv—ince．Acomprehensiveevaluationispresentedinthispaperandmeanwhiletheerrorsourcesareanalyzedaccordingtothechar—acteristicsofverticalprofileofradarreflectivityusingthefourdifferentprecipitationevents．ThesystemunitesthebasicdatafromthesixCINRA

5、D(ChinaNewGenerationofWeatherRadar)atHangzhou，Ningbo，Zhoushan，JinhuaandQuzhouandthegaugedatawithinZhejiangProvincewhicharequality-controlledinrealtimebytheIDW(InverseDistanceWeights)meth—od，andinordertoreducesystematicandlocalerrors，boththedynamicZ-Rrelationshipandoptimalinterpolationmethodarein

6、tegratedintothesystemtocalibratetheQPEfield．Fromtheverificationandanalysisofthefourevents，someconclusionsareasfollows：(1)InnorthwesternandthesouthwesternZhejiang，ifthereflectivitysourcesfromthebright—band(thetopofthecloud)，itresultsintheoverestimation(underestimation)ofradarQPEofthestratiformrai

7、nfal1system．(2)InthecaseofthecoexistenceofdifferentrainfalltypestheuseofrelativeuniformZ-RrelationshipwillresultinseriouslocaloverestimationandunderestimationofQPEduringtheMeiyufront／typhoon．(3)Thesevereconvectionwiththesqua