中国fintech正在主导消费金融

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1、GREATERCHINAChinafintechPoisedtodominateconsumerfinanceChina’sfintechlendingsectorisbooming.Whilsttherewillinevitablybesetbacksfromtighterregulationsandmanyplayerswillfail,weareconvincedthatonlineofferingsareaformidablethreattobanks,inthevastlyunderpenetratedconsumerfinancesegment.We

2、initiatecoverageofthefintechlendingsectorwithapositiveviewandrecommendinvestorsbuyYirendaiandQudian.Ourtargetpriceimpliesaone-yearTSRof43%onYRDand32%onQD.Consumercreditsectorisunder-servedSummaryofrecommendationsHouseholdleverageinChinaislowbecauseindividualsaversandborrowersarePrice

3、MktcapADTPTStock(US$)(US$bn)(US$m)Rec(US$)TSRunder-servedbybanks.Thisispartlyduetoalackofconsumercreditrecords.YRDUS41.92.527OP6043%Withrisingadoptionofmobileinternet,fintechlendersarefillingthatgapwithQDUS27.28.4212OP3632%innovativesolutionsinvolvingshort-termcashadvancesandinstalme

4、ntloans.Note:Stockpricesasof13November2017.Source:MacquarieResearch,November2017Weprojectfintechloanswillregistera37%CAGRoverthenext5years.Whodoyouplantoborrowfrom?BorroweracquisitionandretentionarekeysuccessfactorsFintechlendingcompaniesmakemoneybychargingfacilitationfeestoborrowers

5、overtheirplatforms.However,despitelow-costonlinemodels,None16%Notcustomeracquisitioncostsarerisingandremainasignificanthurdle.Sounddecided31%customerretentionandrepeatbusinessisthereforevitaltoprofitability.BankLoansFundingstructureisacriticaldeterminant26%FintechLendingP2Premainsthe

6、predominantfundingsource.Whilstweconsiderthismore27%expensiveandpronetomoreregulation,wethinkstrongbrandslikeYirendaicanbenefitfromastickiercustomerrelationships.Bycontrast,non-P2Plenders,Source:TencentCDC,MacquarieResearch,Novemberespeciallywithproperlicences,aretappingintocheaperfu

7、ndingsourcesfrom2017banks,trustsandeventhesecuritizationmarket.Competitivelandscape:FintechlendingCreditriskmanagementyettobeprovenfocusingonmassmarketGivenlimitedpubliccreditrecords,fintechlendingplatformshaveutilisedLendersProductsunconventionaldatasourcessuchassocialmediaandonline

8、shoppingreco