资源描述：
《automotive+revolution+perspective+towards+2030》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Automotiverevolution–perspectivetowards2030Howtheconvergenceofdisruptivetechnology-driventrendscouldtransformtheautoindustryAdvancedIndustriesJanuary2016IntroductionToday’seconomiesaredramaticallychanging,triggeredbydevelopmentinemergingmarkets,theacceleratedriseofnewtechnologies,sustainabilitypo
2、licies,andchangingconsumerpreferencesaroundownership.Digitizationandnewbusinessmodelshaverevo-lutionizedotherindustries,andautomotivewillbenoexception.Fortheautomotivesector,theseforcesaregivingrisetofourdisruptivetechnology-driventrends:diversemobility,autonomousdriving,electrification,andconnec
3、tivity.Mostindustryplayersandexpertsagreethatthesefourtechnology-driventrendswillreinforceandaccelerateoneanother,andthereisgeneralconsensusthattheindustryisripefordisruption.Yetalthoughthewidespreadsentimentthatgame-changingdisruptionisalreadyonthehorizon,thereisstillnointegratedperspectiveonhow
4、theautomotiveindustrywilllookin10to15yearsasaresultofthesetrends.Withthispublicationweaimtomaketheimminentchangesmoretangible.Westartfromthegeneralconsensusthattheindustryistransformingandgofurthertospecifyandquan-tifythemagnitudeofchange.Theforecastsinthisstudyshould,thus,beinterpretedasaproject
5、ionofthemoreprobableassumptionsacrossallfourtrends,basedonourcurrentunderstanding.Theforecastmethodologyiscertainlynotdeterministicinnature(Textbox1),butshouldhelpindustryplayersbetterpreparefortheuncertaintybydiscussingpotentialfuturescenarios(Textbox2).Textbox1:Themethodologybehind“Automotivere
6、volution–perspectivetowards2030”ResearchonthefutureofmobilityconductedincollaborationwithStanfordUniversitySubstantialindustry-wideresearchcoveringperspectivesfromincumbents,newentrants,start-ups,academia,aswellasinvestmentandlegalfirmsExtensiveexecutiveinterviewsandin-depthdiscussionswithover30i
7、ndustryexpertsinAsia,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesAproprietaryquantitativemarketmodelintegratingmacroeconomicdevelopment,futuremobilitybehavior,electricvehicleandautonomousvehiclediffusionTherearemanytough,fundamental,orev
