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1、VerticalSpecializationandTrendsinU.S.InternationalTrade1HoganChenandKei-MuYiFirstversion:November2002Thisversion:September20031Chen:M.I.T.;thefirstversionofthispaperwascompletedwhileChenwasasummerinternattheFederalReserveBankofNewYork;Yi:InternationalResearch,FederalReserveBan
2、kofNewYork,33LibertySt.,NewYork,NY,10045.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkortheFederalReserveSystem.Thispaperwasformerlycalled“MythandRealityontheGlobalizationofProductionandInternationalTrade”.Theauthors
3、thankSergioRebeloforprovidingtheinspirationforthispaper,andJamesHarrigan,NarayanaKocherlakota,andAyhanKoseforgivingveryhelpfulcomments.I.IntroductionIndocumentingtheglobalizationofmarketsforgoodsandservices,probablythemostwidelycitedfactistherisingtradesharesofGDP,illustratedi
4、nFigure1fortheUnitedStates.Since1970,theexportshareofGDPhasdoubled,whiletheimportshareofGDPhasalmosttripled.Whilethisbasicfactiswellknown,veryfewotherfactsare.ThemaingoalofthispaperistobuttressthesetoffactsabouttheglobalizationofmarketsforgoodsandservicesastheypertaintotheUnit
5、edStates.Inparticular,welookinmoredetailattrendsinsomeofthemajorcategoriesofU.S.trade,includingintermediategoods,manufacturedgoods,andservices,aswellasintherelativeimportanceofexportsandmultinationalaffiliatesalesinservingforeignmarkets.Eachofthesecategorieshasrelevanceingloba
6、lization.Akeypartofglobalizationistheapparentincreasein2globalsourcing.Inlightofthis,whathashappenedtointermediategoodstrade?Formosthighincomecountries,themanufacturingsectorisshrinking,whiletheservicessectorisgrowing,asashareofGDP.Asaresult,hastherelativeimportanceofmanufactu
7、ringintradeandofservicesintrade,decreasedandincreased,respectively?Finally,asbarrierstotradeandforeigninvestmenthavedeclinedworldwide,whathavebeentheconsequencesfortherelativeimportanceofexportsandmultinationalforeignaffiliatesalesinservingforeignmarkets?Inpresentingthefacts,t
8、hemainthemeofthispaperisthattrendsinthesecategoriesofU.S.trad
