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1、CHAPTER12OtherTopicsinCapitalBudgetingEvaluatingprojectswithunequallivesIdentifyingembeddedoptionsValuingrealoptionsinprojectsEvaluatingprojectswithunequallivesProjectsSandLaremutuallyexclusive,andwillberepeated.Ifk=10%,whichisbetter?ExpectedNetCFsYearP
2、rojectSProjectL0($100,000)($100,000)159,00033,500259,00033,5003-33,5004-33,500SolvingforNPV, withnorepetitionEnterCFsintocalculatorCFLOregisterforbothprojects,andenterI/YR=10%.NPVS=$2,397NPVL=$6,190IsProjectLbetter?Needreplacementchainanalysis.-100,0005
3、9,00059,00059,00059,000-100,000-41,000ReplacementchainUsethereplacementchaintocalculateanextendedNPVStoacommonlife.SinceProjectShasa2-yearlifeandLhasa 4-yearlife,thecommonlifeis4years.012310%4NPVS=$4,377(onextendedbasis)Whatisrealoptionanalysis?Realopti
4、onsexistwhenmanagerscaninfluencethesizeandriskinessofaproject’scashflowsbytakingdifferentactionsduringtheproject’slife.RealoptionanalysisincorporatestypicalNPVbudgetinganalysiswithananalysisforopportunitiesresultingfrommanagers’decisions.Whataresomeexam
5、plesof realoptions?InvestmenttimingoptionsAbandonment/shutdownoptionsGrowth/expansionoptionsFlexibilityoptionsIllustratinganinvestmenttimingoptionIfweproceedwithProjectL,itsannualcashflowsare$33,500,anditsNPVis$6,190.However,ifwewaitoneyear,wewillfindou
6、tsomeadditionalinformationregardingoutputpricesandthecashflowsfromProjectL.Ifwewait,theup-frontcostwillremainat$100,000andthereisa50%chancethesubsequentCFswillbe$43,500ayear,anda50%chancethesubsequentCFswillbe$23,500ayear.InvestmenttimingdecisiontreeAtk
7、=10%,theNPVatt=1is:$37,889,ifCF’sare$43,500peryear,or-$25,508,ifCF’sare$23,500peryear,inwhichcasethefirmwouldnotproceedwiththeproject.50%prob.50%prob.012345Years-$100,00043,50043,50043,50043,500-$100,00023,50023,50023,50023,500Shouldwewaitorproceed?Ifwe
8、proceedtoday,NPV=$6,190.Ifwewaitoneyear,ExpectedNPVatt=1is0.5($37,889)+0.5(0)=$18,944.57,whichisworth$18,944.57/(1.10)=$17,222.34intoday’sdollars(assuminga10%discountrate).Therefore,itmakessensetowait.Issuestoconsiderwithinvestme
