基于能值分析的武安市农业生态安全预警.pdf

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1、第27卷2011钲第6期6月农业工程学报TransactionsoftheCSAE、，ol。27No．6Jun．2011319EarlywarningofagriculturalecologicalsecuritybasedontheemergyanalysisinWu’ancity3iangYon91，FuMeichen揿，WangZen91，RuJiel，ZhangZhongyal，ZhangHongjie2(1．SchoolofLandScienceandTechnology，ChinaUniversityofG

2、eosciences，Beijing,PR．China；2．BureauofLandandResourcesWu"an，Hebei，PR．China)Abstract：Forecastingchangesinagriculturalecologyisimportantforthemaintenanceofagrculturalecologicalsecurityandcontrolofagriculturalecosystemdeterioration．Basedonemergyanalysisofagricultur

3、alecosystem，earlywamingstudyofregionalecologicalsecurityidentifiedwarningcond．itionandtheimportanceofagriculturalecolo百calsecurity,sothatpeoplecanmakewarningandalarmingasearlyaspossibleandtakemeasurestoinhibit，mitigate，controlandregulateiteffectivelybeforetheagr

4、iculturalecosystemdegradationandqualitativechange，whichcanmakeagriculturalecosystemstepintoaviciouscycle．Inthisthesis，theemergyinput．outputandemergybasedindicesoffarmlandinWU’ancity,Hebeiprovincefrom1997to2008werestudiedthroughtheemergyanalysistodynamicallyevalu

5、ateandidentifythefarmlandsustainability．111eearlywarningsystemofWu’anfarmlandwithGreyModelwasestablishedforearlywarningoffarmlanduse．TheresultsindicatedthatWu’ancityHcbeiprovincehadmorereliannceonthelocalnon．renewableresourcesinput．moreenvironmentalpressureandlo

6、wersustainability．Itchangedfromnowarningconditionin1997towarningconditionin2008，anditwouldbeconsistentinwarningconditionin2015，2020withGreyModel．Inaddition，theindexofagriculturalecologicalsecurityofeachtownispresented．Meanwhile，thecountermeasuresofsustainableagr

7、iculturaldevelopmentarepointedout，whichcanprovideabasisandexampleforecologicalregulationandcontrolofsustainableagriculturaldevelopment．Keywords：agriculturalecology,security,earlywarning,emergyanalysis．Wu’ancity．doi：10．39698．issn．1002—6819．2011．06．056CLCnumber：F3

8、23．22Documentcode：AArticleID：1002—6819(20111一06—0319一05JiangY-ong，FuMeichen，WangZeng，eta1．EarlywarningofagriculturalecologicalsecuritybasedonemergyanalysisinWu’anci锣[