我国不良资产国有银行现状处理方法.ppt

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1、NPLsofChineseState-ownedBanks:CurrentStatus,OriginsandDisposalMethodsM.Chen,C.JiaandX.XuGuanghuaSchoolofManagementPekingUniversity11OverviewofChina’sBankingSectorBriefhistoryBefore1979:PBC1979-84:EstablishmentoffourSOCBs1986-:Establishmentofjoint-stockbanks2001-:CityCommercialBanksMarketsharebyasset

2、s(Q3,2004)SCOBs:54.1%Joint-stockbanks:14.6%22NPLsofFourSOCBs33NPLsofFourSOCBs44NPLsofFourSOCBs55OriginsofNPLsPolicyloansSOEsversusprivatesectorHighlevelofdebtofChinesecompaniesInterestratecontrolLowbaserate;lowerthanUSA,IndiaandKoreaLowspreadbetweenthedepositandlendingratesLaevenandMajnoni(2003):in2

3、000,China:3.6%andaverageof106countries:6.67%Poormanagementandmoralhazard66YearStockissueLoangrowthStockissue/Loangrowth1993314.546335.404.961994138.057216.621.911995118.869339.821.271996341.5210683.333.201997933.8210712.478.721998803.5711490.946.991999897.3910846.368.2720001541.0213346.6111.55200111

4、82.1312439.419.50CapitalsRaisedbyChineseCompanies772002779.7518979.204.112003823.1027702.302.97Datasource:ＩＮＦＯＢＡＮＫ88ReasonsfortheDecreaseinNPLsratioIncreaseintotalamountofloansIn2003,thenetincreasewasRMB2,770billions(24%totalloansbetween1991-2003)DecreaseinNPLsCapitalinjectionbygovernmentTransferof

5、NPLstoAMCsInQ2of2003,NPLsincreasedbyRMB18.3billionaftertakingintoaccountofNPLstransfersChangeinmaturitystructureofloans991010MethodsofNPLDisposalCapitalinjectionbygovernmentEstablishmentofAMCsFinancingofAMCsMethodsofassetdisposalAuctionEquity-debtswapAssetbackedsecuritiesIncreasinglymoredifficultDir

6、ectdisposalbyfourSOCBs1111NPLDisposalbytheAMCs(Asofend-Q3,2004)AMCsNPLdisposedCashrecoveryrate(%)Huarong1745.627.3520.34GreatWall1832.415.6410.56Orient966.829.9121.89Cinda1331.439.1533.20AMCsoverall5876.226.79%20.46%(Source:PBC,CBRC)Assetrecoveryrate%1212NPLsandFinancialStabilityofChinaNPLscontinuet

7、oemergeinlargeamountThenewNPLsinthenextthreeyearswillbebetweenRMB600billionto1,050billion(Zhong,2004).LiberalizationofbankingsectorCapitalinjectionbygovernmentisbecomingmorelimitedRapidincreaseingover