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1、RESEARCHTheWildernessUseSimulationModelAppliedtoColoradoRiverBoatinginGrandCanyonNationalPark,USA研究荒野使用模拟模型及其应用科罗拉多河在大峡谷国家划船美国公园A.HEATONUNDERHILLCooperativeNationalParkResourcesStudiesUnit125BiologicalSciencesEastUniversityofArizonaTucson,Arizona85721,USAA.BUSAXABADepartmentofMathematic
2、sUniversityofSwazilandPCKwduseni,SwazikmdRONALDE.BORKANSchoolofRenewableNaturalResourcesUniversityofArizonaTucson,Arizona85721,USA答:希顿昂徳希尔合作国家公园资源研究组125生物科学东亚利桑那大学85721,美国亚利桑那州图森A.BUSAXABA数学系斯威士兰大学PCKwaluseni,斯威士兰罗纳徳大肠杆菌BORKAN可再生自然资源学院亚利桑那大学85721,美国亚利桑那州图森ABSTRACT/AmodificationoftheShec
3、hter-LucasWilder-nessUseSimulationModel(WUSM)forpeakseasonboatingontheColoradoRiverthroughGrandCanyonNationalPark,USA,isevaluatedasatoolformakingmanagementdecisions・AnewmicrocomputerprogramtoselecttripitinerariesforinclusionintheWUSMthatwasdevelopedaspartofthisstudyispresented.Thisprog
4、ramsimplifiesuserinputandexpandstheWUSMsusefulnessasatoolformanagementdecisionsbyrandomizingitineraryschedulesbasedonprobabilitiesdevelopedfromactualuseofsitesbycanyonvisitors.Modelusefulnessisdemonstratedbysimulatingvariousmanagementchangesandcomparinguselevelsofattractionsitesandcam
5、pgroundsaswellasnumbersofencountersbetweenparties・TheWUSMisbeingusedaspartofanongoingstudy,toreflecttheimpactoffluctuatingflowregimesonrivertrips・throughtheturbinesatGlenCanyonDam扌由象/一个修改的Shechter卢卡斯•怀尔德内斯使用模拟模型(WUSM)为旺季划船通过科罗拉多河大峡谷国家公园,美国,被评为决策管理决策的工具sionso一种新的微机程序选择旅行路线列入开发这部分WUSM研究提
6、出。该方案简化了用户的输入和作为一个管理工具,扩大WUSM的实用性基于概率,随机行程吋间表的决定从实际使用网站开发能力峡谷Visitors。通过模拟各种模犁的有效性证明管理变革和吸引力比较使用量地点和营地以及遭遇数字各方Z间。在WUSM止在使用的个纽.成部分止在进行的研究,以反映脉动流制度的影响通过涡轮机在格伦峡谷大坝对河流人次。FollowingtheclosureofGlenCanyonDamin1964,thevolumeofboatingandraftingontheColoradoRiverthroughGrandCanyonNationalPark,US
7、A,increasedrapidly.Whileraftingeverywhereonsuitableriversincreasedduringthisperiod,thedamstabilizedandimprovedtremendouslyraftingconditionsthroughthepark.Inthelate1970s,theParkServiceestablishedaceilingofapproximately15,000personsayearinordertopreventtheriverfrombeingover-used