欧洲洪水影响评价技术在长江流域的运用及其若干修正.doc

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1、湖泊科学JournalofLakeSciencesTransferabilityofEuropeanFloodImpactEstimationTechniquestotheYangtzeRiverCatchmentandPossibleAdaptations*MarcoGEMMER(CanterforInternationalDevelopmentandEnvironmentalResearchandDepartmentofGeography,JustusLiebigUniversity,Giessen,Germany)AbstractanoverviewofEu

2、ropeanfloodimpactestimationtechniquesisgiven.Thequestionshowtohandlefloodhazardsandhowtominimiselossesduetofloodsarehighlighted.Itcanbenoted,thattheestimationofflootlrisksandtheassessmentofpotentiallossesduetofloodsisagreatdemandfortheYangtzeRivercatchmentbutEuropeanfloodimpactestimat

3、iontechniquesarehardlytransferable.Therefore,anintegratedmodellingapproachcombininghydrodynamicandunitflooddamagemodelsareintroduced・Keywords:floodhazards,floodimpactestimation,floodinundationestimation,flooddamage,damagecurves,unitflooddamageTechnicalorstructuralfloodprotectionwasthe

4、basisofdefendingpeoplefromfloodbothinEuropeandChina,andallovertheworld,duringthelastcenturiesWithinthelastdecades,theawarenesshasarisenthatstructuralmeasuresoffloodprotectioncannotbethesustainableandcompetitivemeansofprotectingthepeoplefromfloodsThoughstructuralfloodmeasuressuchasdyk

5、es,flooddiversionareas,orwiderprofilesisgivingacertaindegreeoffloodsafetyuptoadesignedfloodlevellthereisalatentlyendangermentbehindorunderthetechnicalfloodprotectionmeasure.Moreover,changesinthehydrologicalregimesofariverdemandacostlyadaptationofthesemeasures.Precipitationasthemainrea

6、sonforfloodsattheYangtzeRivercanberegardedasbeingunderlyingpositiveandnegativetrends.LateststudiesonprecipitationintheYangtzeRivercatchmentindicateatendencytowardsaconcentrationofsummerrainfallswithinashortertimeperiod.Therelevanceofthistrendforfuturefloodeventsisapparent1101andund

7、erlinesresultsfromrecentstudieswhichdepictanincreaseofbothamplitudeandfrequencyoffloodsinfuture1111Sincetheanalysisofextremeeventsinbothobservationsandcoupledmodelsisunderdevelopedandthechangesinfrequencyofextremeeventscannotbegenerallyattributedtothehumaninfluenceonglobalclimate[l2

8、more