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1、摘要会引发金融炒作事件，过分抬高虚拟资产价格，扰乱我国金融市场的秩序。最后，本文建立了基于CPI的向量自回归模型进行了实证研究发现，货币供应量的货币流动性比率M1/M2、流通领域的货币供应量M1、银行信贷量、外汇占款等因素对我国CPI确实有明显的正向拉动作用。从而在M2/GDP高比率背景下如何有效防范通胀风险，提出了一些政策建议。关键词：M2/GDP；货币供应量；通胀IIAbstractAbstractSincethereformandopening-upof1978,thesupplyofmoneybecomesm
2、oreandmore,withtheeconomydevelopingfast.Tocomparewithdevelopedcountries,ourcountry’sM2/GDPhasbeenfarmorethanAmerica,Germany,TheBritishandsoon.Atthesametime,theupwardtrendseemsnottostop.Whatisthereasonoftheeconomicphenomenon?Weathertheeconomicphenomenondeviating
3、fromgeneraleconomiclawwillbeharmfultoourcountry?Tothefirstquestion,manyscholarshavedonemuchresearch,buttothesecondquestion,thereisonlyalittleresearch.Atthistime,figuringoutthereasonofhighratioofM2/GDP,andanalysingweatherthereisinflationriskbehindthiswillbeimpor
4、tanttooureconomyoftransition.First,thisarticlehasdescribedtheprocessofourcountry’smonetization.Then,comparewithothercountries.Third,analysethelong-termtrendandcyclicaltrend.Forth,analysethereasonofhighratioofM2/GDP.Afterthat,analyseweathertherewillproduceinflat
5、ion,fromthetotalandthestructureofthesupplyofmoney.Atlast,wefindthatourcountry’smoneyvelocityhasbeendecliningfrom1978,butthevelocityhasbecomemoreandmoreslowfrom2000.Inaword,ourcountry’smoneyvelocityhasbecomefast.Thatmeansmonetaryliquiditymayexcess.Atthesametime,
6、thesupplyofmoneyhasraisedbecauseofcurrentaccountandcapitalaccountaresurplus.Andthisresultsininflationtosomeextent.Thefinancingformofourcountryisrare.Theindirectfinancingformisthemainway.Sotheinflationwilloccurbecauseoftheloanexpended.Thequasimoneyofourcountryis
7、nottherealmoneybecausethequasimoneycannotbeusedintransaction.Ourcountry’sresidents’propensitytosaveismuchhighonaccountofreformationinthefieldofhousing,medicaltreatment,education,providefortheagedandstate-ownedenterprisereformwhichbringaboutuncertainty.Moreover,
8、thefinancialinnovationisinsufficient,andtheinvestwayisfew.So,ifthequasimoneybecomesM1,inflationwilloccur.Ifquasimoneygetsintothevirtualeconomy,itwillbecomehypeIIIAbstractcap
