电力客户分时电价预测系统的设计与实现.pdf

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1、THEDESIGNANDIMPLEMENTATIONOFTIME-SHARINGELECTRICITYPRICEFORECASTSYSTEMFORPOWERCUSTOMERAMasterThesisSubmittedtoUniversityofElectronicScienceandTechnologyofChinaMajor:MasterofEngineeringAuthor:ChenwangAdvisor:XiaojiazhouSchool:SchoolofAutomationEngineeringᨬ㽕ᨬ㽕ᓔᬒ

2、䳔∖ջˈᅲ⦄䳔∖ջㅵ⧚˄DSM˅ˈᓩܹ䳔∖ӋḐᔍᗻˈ߽⫼ӋḐ᠟↉ᅲ⦄䋳㥋䇗᥻ˈᰃ⬉࡯Ꮦഎথሩⱘᖙ㒣П䏃ˈ㗠԰Ў⬉࡯䳔∖ջㅵ⧚ⱘϔ⾡䞡㽕᠟↉ˈዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌৃҹᅲ⦄ࠞዄ฿䈋ˈᦤ催⬉࡯㋏㒳ⱘ〇ᅮᗻ੠㒣⌢ᗻˈ݊Ḍᖗݙᆍᰃড়⧚ⱘࠊᅮዄ䈋⬉Ӌ∈ᑇˈᦤկ㒭⍜䌍㗙ܙ䎇᳝ᬜⱘӋḐোDŽ⬉Ӌᰃᬍব⬉࡯ᅶ᠋⫼⬉ᮍᓣⱘ᳝ᬜ䗨ᕘˈгᰃ⬉࡯Ꮦഎϔ⾡䴲ᐌ᳝ᬜⱘ䇗㡖᠟↉ˈ⬉࡯ᎹϮᬍ䴽ϢথሩⱘḌᖗ䯂乬Пϔህᰃ⬉ӋⱘࠊᅮDŽ㗠ዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌ԰Ў⬉࡯Ꮦഎ䳔∖ջㅵ⧚ⱘϔ⾡䞡㽕᠟↉ˈᏆ೼Ϫ⬠৘೑ⱘ⬉࡯ᎹϮᏖഎⱘ㒣⌢ㅵ⧚Ёথ᣹ⴔВ䎇䕏䞡ⱘ԰⫼DŽᴀ䇒乬᠔ⷨおⱘ䳔∖ડ

3、ᑨ乍Ⳃᰃḍ᥂Ꮦഎⱘ⬉Ӌᴎࠊˈ䗮䖛䖯㸠ࠞዄ฿䈋ˈᴹ㓧㾷㋏㒳ⷁᳳᆍ䞣㔎乱ˈ᳔㒜䖒ࠄᬍ୘⬉࡯㋏㒳᮹䋳㥋᳆㒓ˈᦤ催⬉㛑䋼䞣ⱘⳂⱘDŽ䰸ℸП໪ˈ䖤⫼ዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌϡҙৃҹ䰡Ԣ⫼᠋ⱘ⬉㛑៤ᴀˈᦤ催⬉㛑ᬜⲞˈᅲ⦄ࠞዄ฿䈋ˈ䖬ৃҹޣᇥ៪ᓊ㓧⬉㔥ᡩ䌘ˈޣᇥ⬉㔥ⱘ໛⫼ᆍ䞣ˈᇍѢᦤ催⬉࡯㋏㒳〇ᅮᗻˈᦤछ⬉㔥ⱘ㒣⌢䖤㸠∈ᑇ݋᳝ᵕ݊䞡㽕ⱘᛣНDŽ佪ܜˈᴀ᭛෎ѢӋḐ䳔∖ડᑨᴎࠊˈߚᵤ⫼᠋ᇍ⬉Ӌⱘડᑨˈ䞛⫼䳔∖ӋḐᔍᗻᴹড᯴ᅲ㸠ዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌৢ⫼᠋ⱘ䳔∖ˈҹ䇗ዄЎⳂᷛᓎゟዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉ӋⱘӬ࣪῵ൟˈ݊Ёࣙᣀᵘ䗴῵ൟⱘⳂᷛߑ᭄ǃ䳔㽕⒵䎇ⱘ㑺ᴳᴵӊǃ⹂ᅮއㄪব

4、䞣ㄝˈҢ㗠ᓎゟ৿৘㉏㑺ᴳⱘ䴲㒓ᗻ㾘ߦ῵ൟDŽ݊⃵ˈ䞛⫼᳔Ӭ࣪ⱘᮍ⊩ᇍ䆹῵ൟ䖯㸠ߚᵤ∖㾷ˈ㦋ᕫዄǃ䈋ǃᑇӬ࣪ߚᯊ⬉Ӌˈᇚ䆹ߚᯊ⬉ӋᙃӴ㒭⫼᠋ˈ⫼᠋ḍ᥂⬉ӋخߎⳌᑨⱘ⫼⬉䇗ᭈ䅵ߦDŽ᳔ৢˈ೼ᕫࠄዄǃ䈋ǃᑇӬ࣪ߚᯊ⬉Ӌৢˈ䗮䖛ߚᵤ೼ᬍবӬ࣪ᯊ↉ⱘߦߚǃᬍব⫼᠋ડᑨᑺⱘᚙމϟ᮹䋳㥋᳆㒓ⱘব࣪ˈড᯴Ϟ䗄಴㋴ᇍ᮹䋳㥋᳆㒓ⱘᕅડᚙމˈЎᅲ䰙ᚙމϟዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉ӋⱘࠊᅮᦤկއㄪᬃᣕDŽᴀ᭛䆒䅵ⱘ⬉࡯ᅶ᠋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌ乘⌟㋏㒳㋏㒳Ңࡳ㛑㒧ᵘϞЏ㽕ߚЎϝ໻ࡳ㛑ˈ乘Ҭ䌍ଂ⬉ࡳ㛑ǃ䖰⿟ϟথࡳ㛑ǃ᭄᥂ߚᵤࡳ㛑ˈकϔ໻῵ഫˈࣙᣀ᭄᥂᥹ষ῵ഫǃ᭄᥂䅵ㅫ῵ഫǃḷ

5、Ḝㅵ⧚῵ഫǃ乘Ҭ⬉䌍ଂ⬉῵ഫǃ⬉䞣䅵ㅫ῵ഫǃ⬉䞣ϟথ῵ഫǃ⼼᥂ᠧॄ῵ഫǃ᭄᥂ߚᵤ῵ഫǃ䋺ࡵᇍ䋺῵ഫǃ᡹㸼ㅵ⧚῵ഫǃᴗ䰤ㅵ⧚῵ഫDŽ䆹㋏㒳乍ⳂЏ㽕ᰃᇍ㧹䫔Ϯࡵ㋏㒳Ϣ৘⹀ӊॖଚ㋏㒳ᦤկ᭄᥂ⱘⳌ݇῵ഫ䖯㸠ѸѦˈ䗮䖛ᇍ῵ഫݙ䚼ҹঞ῵ഫП䯈᭄᥂ⱘѸѦ䖒ࠄ᭄᥂ᣕЙ࣪ⱘⳂⱘˈЎկ⬉݀ৌ㒣㧹ᦤկᐂࡽDŽIᨬ㽕݇䬂䆡˖䳔∖ջㅵ⧚ˈዄ䈋ߚᯊ⬉Ӌˈ⫼᠋ડᑨˈ䳔∖ӋḐᔍᗻIIABSTRACTABSTRACTTheretailmarketwillbeopenedanddemandelasticityshouldbeconsideredinthe

6、furtherelectricitymarketevolution.Peakandvalleytime-of-usepriceisoneofthemostefficientmeasurementsformoderndemandsidemanagement(DSM).Itisbeneficialtoflattheloadcurveifthepeakandvalleytimeperiodsarepartitionedappropriatelyandtoimproveloadrateandsystemstabilityo

7、ftheelectricityindustry.Electricityisaneffectivewaytochangethewaypowercustomerpower,isalsoaveryeffectivemeansofadjustingthepowermarket,electricpowerindustryisoneofthecoreissuesofthereformanddevelopmentofelectricityprice.Peakandvalleylimeprice,asanimportantmean

8、sofpowerdemandsidemanagement,hasbeeninpowerindustrymarketaroundtheworldplayanimportantroleineconomicmanagement.Thistopicresearchthedemandresponseprogramisaccordingtothemarketpricem