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1、WhenIwasakid,thedisasterweworriedaboutmostwasanuclearwar.That’swhywehadabarrellikethisdowninourbasementfilledwithcansoffoodandwater.Whenthenuclearattackcame,weweresupposedtogodownstairs,hunkerdown,andeatoutofthatbarrel.Todaythegreatestriskofglobalcatastroph
2、edoesn’tlooklikethis.Instead,itlookslikethis.Ifanythingkillsover10millionpeopleinthenextfewdecades,it’smostlikelytobeahighlyinfectiousvirusratherthanawar.Notmissiles,butmicrobes.Now,partofthereasonforthisisthatwe’veinvestedahugeamountinnucleardeterrents.But
3、we’veactuallyinvestedverylittleinasystemtostopanepidemic.We’renotreadyforthenextepidemic.Let’slookatEbola.I’msureallofyoureadaboutitinthenewspaper,lotsoftoughchallenges.Ifolloweditcarefullythroughthecaseanalysistoolsweusetotrackpolioeradication.Andasyoulook
4、atwhatwenton,theproblemwasn’tthattherewasasystemthatdidn’tworkwellenough,theproblemwasthatwedidn’thaveasystematall.Infact,there’resomeprettyobviouskeymissingpieces.Wedidn’thaveagroupofepidemiologistsreadytogo,whowouldhavegone,seenwhatthediseasewas,seenhowfa
5、rithadspread.Thecasereportscameinonourpaper.Itwasverydelayedbeforetheyareputonline,andtheywereextremelyinaccurate.Wedidn’thaveamedicalteam5/5readytogo.Wedidn’thaveawayofpreparingpeople.Now,MedicinesSansFrontieresdidagreatjoborchestratingvolunteers.Butevenso
6、,wewerefarslowerthanweshouldhavebeengettingthethousandsofworkersintothesecountries.Andalargeepidemicwouldrequireustohavehundredsofthousandsofworkers.Therewasnoonetheretolookattreatmentapproaches.Noonetolookatthediagnostics.Noonetofigureoutwhattoolsshouldbeu
7、sed.Asanexample,wecouldhavetakenthebloodofsurvivors,processedit,andputthatplasmabackinpeopletoprotectthem.Butthatwasnevertried.Sotherewasalotthatwasmissing.Andthesethingsarereallyaglobalfailure.TheWHOisfundedtomonitorepidemics,butnottodothesethingsItalkedab
8、out.Now,inthemoviesit’squitedifferent.There’sagroupofhandsomeepidemiologistsreadytogo,theymovein,theysavetheday,butthat’sjustpureHollywood.Thefailuretopreparecouldallownextepidemictobedramaticallymored
