Chap008.ppt

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1、CHAPTER8Cost-BenefitAnalysisCopyright©2010bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinProjectingPresentDollarsintotheFutureR0=$1000R1=$1000*(1+.01)=$1010R2=$1010*(1+.01)=$1020.10R2=$1000*(1+.01)2=$1020.10RT=R0*(1+r)TProjectingFutureDollarsintot

2、hePresentR0=$1000R1=$1000*(1+.01)=$1010R2=$1010*(1+.01)=$1020.10R2=$1000*(1+.01)2=$1020.10RT=R0*(1+r)TR0=RT/(1+r)TPresentValuediscountratediscountfactorPresentValueofaStreamofMoneyInflationPrivateSectorProjectEvaluationAnnualNetReturnPVYearR&DAdvertisingR=R&DAdvert

3、ising0$1,000-$1,0000$150$200160000.011281652000.03869835501,2000.0546370.0710-21AdmissiblePreferablePresentValueCriteriaInternalRateofReturnProjectYear0Year1ρProfitPVX-$100$11010%$43.77Y-$1,000$1,0808%$2018.87Benefit-CostRatioBenefit-costratio=B/CProblemswiththeBen

4、efit-CostRatioMethodBCB/CI$250$1002.5II$200$1002.0I:Subtract$40mistakefromB$210$1002.1I:Add$40mistaketoC$250$1401.79DiscountRateforGovernmentProjectsReturnsinPrivateSectorSocialDiscountRatePaternalismMarketInefficiencyDiscountingandtheEconomicsofClimateChangeGovern

5、mentDiscountinginPracticeValuingPublicBenefitsandCostsMarketPricesAdjustedMarketPricesShadowpriceMonopolyTaxesUnemploymentConsumerSurplusPoundsofavocadosperyearPriceperpoundofavocadosDaSadA0Sa’$1.35$2.89bcgA1eInferencesfromEconomicBehaviorTheValueofTimeTheValueofL

6、ifeLostearningsProbabilityofdeathValuingIntangiblesSubvertingcost-benefitexercisesReveallimitsonintangiblesCost-effectivenessanalysisGamesCost-BenefitAnalystsPlayTheChain-ReactionGameTheLaborGameTheDouble-CountingGameDistributionalConsiderationsHicks-KaldorCriterio

7、n–aprojectshouldbeundertakenifithaspositivenetpresentvalue,regardlessofdistributionalconsequencesGovernmentcostlesslycorrectsanyundesirabledistributionalaspectsWeightedbenefitsUncertaintyProjectBenefitProbabilityEVX$1,0001.00$1,000Y00.50$1,000$2,0000.50CertaintyEqu

8、ivalentAreReductionsinClassSizeWorthIt?DiscountrateCostsBenefitsTheBottomLineandEvaluationUse(andNonuse)byGovernmentUsingCost-BenefitAnalysisNotU