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1、DemographicchangeinruralChina: ImplicationforfutureinnovationCAER/IFPRIAnnualConferenceOct.17-18,2013CentralChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Wuhan,ChinaZhongFuningNanjingAgriculturalUniversityIntroductionChinahasexperiencedthe“largestpeacefulmigrationinhumanhistory”sincethere
2、form,whichgreatlycontributedtoeconomicgrowth,urbanization,andfarmers’incomeaswell.Howabouttheimpactsonthelong-run&sustainablegrowthinagriculture,especiallygrainproduction?Whattechnologyinnovationisneededinadaptingtothedemographicchange?IntroductionDecliningshareofruralla
3、borforce:from70.5%in1978to34.8%in2011，implying273millionsmovedoutAgriculturalProduction：AgriculturalGDP:+4.56%peryear;Grainproduction:+1.6%peryear;ShiftofgrainproductiontomorelaborintensivevegetablesExplanationandfuturechallenge?DemographicchangeinruralChina;Farmers’adap
4、tationtodemographicchangeDemographicchangeinruralChinaDespitesignificantdeclinesinthesharesofruralpopulationandlaborforce,theabsolutenumberofrurallaborforcedidnotreduce.Numberorlaborersperhouseholdincreasedfrom2.45in1980to2.78in2011,andarablelandpercapitaonlyslightlyincr
5、easedfrom2.17muin1995to2.30muin2011,implyingnochangeinland/laborratio.DemographicchangeinruralChinaDespitelaborinputperunitofsownareaisabout5timeshighinvegetableproduction,itstotalsownareahasincreasedfrom3toalmost20millionhectares,withitsshareintotalcropareaincreasedfrom
6、2to12%,implyingnodefiniteandabsoluteshortageinlaborsupply.DemographicchangeinruralChinaBasedonourvillage-widesurvey(covering121counties,203villages,7317householdsand28,021personsin5provinceswithbigpopulationandoutmigrants),80%ofyounglaborersagedbetween20-30ofagehavelefth
7、ome.DemographicchangeinruralChinaAmongthe9279working-agepersonsstayingathomemorethan10monthsayear,onlyabout1/3areprimarilyengagedinagriculture;Amongthoseprimarilyengagedinagriculture,only13.8%areunder35while58.8%areover45.Sothebasicissuesarelikelytobeagingofrurallaborers
8、atpresent,andrapidshringkinginthefutureasaresult.agefarmnon-farmbothNo-worktotalNo.%No.%No.%No.%No.%16-
