资源描述：
《2015数模美赛A题论文.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Team#36041Page1of30TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyForofficeuseonlyT1________________36041F1________________T2________________F2________________T3________________F3________________ProblemChosenT4________________F4________________A2015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)Su
2、mmarySheetSummaryAccordingtothemessagesontheWorldHealthOrganization,theEbolavirusinWestAfricahascontinuedtoeruptsinceDecember2013.Inthispaper,wemainlystudythetreatmentprogramsaboutEbolainSierraLeone,Liberia,Nigeria,andGuinea.ForaquickendtotheEbolacrisis,fivemodelsareesta
3、blished,whichareaboutthespreadingofthedisease,possiblefeasibledeliverysystems,locationsofdelivery,etc.Inthefirstmodel,weuseSEIQRSmodeltoestimatetheinfectionratewithoutdrugsinaperiodoftimeinthosefourcountries,anddeterminewhetherit’sessentialtodevelopanewdrugtocontrolthecr
4、isis.Then,inthesecondmodel,weestimatetheoptimaldrug-usingtimetocurethediseaseeffectivelybyobservingseveralfiguresaboutinfectionrateafterusingdrugs.Basedonthespreadingofthevirus,weuseamulti-levelnetworkmodeltoreckonthedeliverysysteminthethirdmodel.Weconsidernotonlythetran
5、sportationtool,butotherfactorssuchastimeandinvestment.Aboutthefourthmodel,weestablishabasestationasademandpoint，andthenusetheMonteCarlorandompointstoreplaceprobabilities,next,usestochasticanalysisofonsetlocationtypetovaluesomereasonablelocationsofdelivery.Inthefifthmodel
6、,thequantityandthespeedofthemanufacturingofdrugcloselyconnectedwitheachother,weusenonlinearprogrammingmodeltoachievetheoptimalsolution.Thefivemodelsarerelativelyseparated.Inaddition,weintroduce―timecost‖(thelosscausedbythedeathofpeopleandtheprofitoferadicatingthediseasee
7、arlier,atacertaintime)tomakethosefivemodelsconnectwitheachother.Furthermore,weusea"cost"tomakelinkthem.The―cost‖includesbudget,livesofhumanbeings,andtimeetc.Finally,wefinishthecomprehensivemodelabouteradicatingEbolaaftermakingabalancebetweenminimizingofthecostandmaximizi
8、ngoftheprofit.WehopethatthroughthismodelwecansuccessfullycurbthespreadoftheEbolavirusbycostinglessanden
