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1、GettingItWrongGettingItWrongHowFaultyMonetaryStatisticsUnderminetheFed,theFinancialSystem,andtheEconomyWilliamA.BarnettTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England©2012MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronico
2、rmechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.MITPressbooksmaybepurchasedatspecialquantitydiscountsforbusinessorsalespromotionaluse.Forinformation,pleaseemailspecial_sales@mitpress.mit.eduorwritetoSpec
3、ialSalesDepartment,TheMITPress,55HaywardStreet,Cambridge,MA02142.ThisbookwassetinPalatinobyGraphicComposition,Inc.,Bogart,GA.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataBarnett,WilliamA.Gettingitwrong:howfaultymonetarystatisticsundermin
4、etheFed,thefinancialsystem,andtheeconomy/WilliamA.Barnett;forewordbyApostolosSerletis.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-262-01691-9(hbk.:alk.paper)ISBN978-0-262-51688-4(pbk.:alk.paper)1.MonetarypolicyUnitedStates.2.FinanceMathematicalmodels.3.Financialcrise
5、s.4.Econometrics.5.UnitedStatesEconomicpolicy2009I.Title.HB139.B37552012332.401'5195dc23201102105010987654321Dedicatedtothememoryofthegreateconometrician,HenriTheil,19242000ContentsForeword:MacroeconomicsasaSciencexiiiApostolosSerletisPrefacexxiiiAcknowledgmentsxxxiiiITheFactswit
6、houttheMath1Introduction31.1WhoseGreed?41.1.1PonziGames,Transversality,andtheFraudExplosion61.1.2ConditionalExpectations81.1.3RegulationinHistoryandinTheory91.2TheGreatModeration111.3TheMaestro121.4Paradoxes171.5Conclusion192MonetaryAggregationTheory212.1AddingApplesandOranges212
7、.2DualPriceAggregation252.3FinancialAggregation272.4TheCommerceDepartmentandtheDepartmentofLabor332.5TheMajorAcademicPlayers352.5.1IrvingFisher362.5.2FrançoisDivisia382.5.3HenriTheil412.5.4DaleJorgenson42viiiContents2.5.5MiltonFriedman432.5.6W.ErwinDiewert462.5.7JamesPoterbaandJu
8、lioRotemberg482.6BanksthroughouttheWorld
