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1、SolutionstoEnd-of-SectionandChapterReviewProblems689CHAPTER1616.1Usethesmoothedvalueforthisyear:32.4millionsofconstantthisyeardollars.16.2(a)Sinceyouneeddatafromfourprioryearstoobtainthecentered9-yearmovingaverageforanygivenyearandsincethefirstrecordedvalueisfor1984,thefirstcen
2、teredmovingaveragevalueyoucancalculateisfor1988.(b)Youwouldlosefouryearsfortheperiod1984-1987sinceyoudonothaveenoughpastvaluestocomputeacenteredmovingaverage.Youwillalsolosethefinalfouryearsofrecordedtimeseriessinceyoudonothaveenoughlatervaluestocomputeacenteredmovingaverage.Th
3、erefore,youwillloseatotalofeightyearsincomputingaseriesof9-yearmovingaverages.16.3(a)(b)16.4(a),(b),(c),(e)(b),(c),(e)Copyright©2014PearsonEducation,Inc.SolutionstoEnd-of-SectionandChapterReviewProblems68916.4(d)W=0.5:=168.0932cont.W=0.25:=166.1678(f)Theexponentiallysmoothedfor
4、ecastfor2010withW=0.5ishigherthanthatwithW=0.25.AsmoothingcoefficientofW=0.25smoothesouttheaveragetimemorethanW=0.50.TheexponentialsmoothingwithW=0.5assignsmoreweighttothemorerecentvaluesandisbetterforforecasting,whiletheexponentialsmoothingwithW=0.25whichassignsmoreweighttomor
5、edistancevaluesisbettersuitedforeliminatingunwantedcyclicalandirregularvariations.16.5(a),(b),(c),(d)(b),(c),(d)(d)=7.0426=7(e)(d)=11.6623=12(f)AsmoothingcoefficientofW=0.25smoothesoutthenumberofspillsmorethanW=0.50.TheexponentialsmoothingwithW=0.5assignsmoreweighttothemorerece
6、ntvaluesandisbetterforforecasting,whiletheexponentialsmoothingwithW=0.25whichassignsmoreweighttomoredistancevaluesisbettersuitedforeliminatingunwantedcyclicalandirregularvariations.Copyright©2014PearsonEducation,Inc.SolutionstoEnd-of-SectionandChapterReviewProblems68916.6(a),(b
7、),(c)(b),(c),(e)DecadePerformance(%)MA(3)ES(W=0.5)ES(W=0.25)1830s2.82.80002.80001840s12.87.40007.80005.30001850s6.610.63337.20005.62501860s12.58.86679.85007.34381870s7.58.66678.67507.38281880s6.06.33337.33757.03711890s5.57.46676.41886.65281900s10.96.20008.65947.71461910s2.28.80
8、005.42976.33601920s13.34.43339.36488.07701930s-2.26.90
